AUD/USD’s consolidation pattern from 0.7288 extended last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some more sideway trading first. As long as 0.7443 resistance holds, outlook stays bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the fall from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. But subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7067; (P) 0.7108; (R1) 0.7160; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.7003 accelerated to as high as 0.7168 so far. Decisive break of 0.7121 suggests that corrective decline from 0.7295 has completed with three waves down to 0.7003 already. More importantly, rise from 0.6722 might be in progress. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7206 resistance first. Break will target 0.7295 high next. On the downside, break of 0.7056 is needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.7003. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6710; (P) 0.6727; (R1) 0.6757; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current development argues that near term trend could be reversing. Deeper decline would be seen to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. On the upside, break of 0.6854 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall, or risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6715; (P) 0.6728; (R1) 0.6749; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 0.6677 is extending. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618. On the upside, above 0.6822 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6745; (P) 0.6760; (R1) 0.6780; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside as recovery from 0.6677 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.6670/7 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6985; (P) 0.7013; (R1) 0.7059; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 0.7029 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7265 resistance. Rejection by 0.7029 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6771; (P) 0.6795; (R1) 0.6810; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.6677 short term bottom. More consolidations could be seen and stronger rebound cannot be ruled ut. But in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6503; (P) 0.6524; (R1) 0.6552; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 0.6442 first. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6642 will resume the decline from 0.6870 towards 0.6269 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6845; (P) 0.6864; (R1) 0.6877; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. While rebound from 0.6677 might extend, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6894 resistance to limit upside to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6810 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6723. Break will bring retest of 0.6670 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7059; (P) 0.7113; (R1) 0.7146; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Rebound from 0.6722 should have completed at 0.7235. Further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7235 at 0.7039 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 0.6918 and below. On the upside, however, break of 0.7166 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside and will likely extend the rebound from 0.6722.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6902; (P) 0.6930; (R1) 0.6953; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as sideway consolidation continues. On the downside, firm break of 0.6828 support will resume larger fall from 0.8006. Next target is 0.6756/60 cluster support. On the upside, above 0.7068 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to 0.7282 resistance first. Firm break there will be a sign of bullish reversal and bring stronger rebound to 0.7666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6982; (P) 0.7014; (R1) 0.7060; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7045 but quickly retreated again. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7279 support last week argues that rebound from 0.7105 has already completed at 0.7477. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for retesting 0.7105 low. Break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7346 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6679; (P) 0.6705; (R1) 0.6743; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, another rise through 0.6729 should confirm short term bottoming at 0.6563, just ahead of 0.6546 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6778). Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.7156 high. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.6546 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6169 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7158). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Sustained break there will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6699; (P) 0.6765; (R1) 0.6803; More…

AUD/USD’s fall resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6855 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7179; (P) 0.7231; (R1) 0.7260; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.7034 support holds. Current development raised the chance that whole fall corrective fall from 0.8005 has completed at 0.6828. Above 0.7282 will extend the rebound to 0.7660 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.7034 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 0.6828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6650; (P) 0.6679; (R1) 0.6697; More...

AUD/USD dips mildly today as consolidation from 0.6713 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6817; (P) 0.6832; (R1) 0.6852; More…

AUD/USD recovered notably after drawing support form 0.6810. But upside is held well below 0.6882. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6894 resistance holds and larger down trend is expected to resume sooner or later. On the downside, break of 0.6810 should confirm completion of corrective rise from 0.6670. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6723 first. Break will bring retest of 0.6677 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7537; (P) 0.7584; (R1) 0.7609; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7550 minor support argues that consolidation from 0.7531 has completed with three waves up to 0.7653 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Break of 0.7531 low will resume whole fall from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7729 resistance holds and further fall is expected.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8033). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6922; (P) 0.6962; (R1) 0.6985; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 07295 should target 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.7018 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.