AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6677 resumed last week and closed strongly at 0.6849. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.6910 support turned resistance, and possibly above. At this point, such rebound is seen as a corrective move, thus, upside should be limited below 0.7082 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6807 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6677 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6096; (P) 0.6152; (R1) 0.6228; More…

AUD/USD retreats mildly after failing 0.6213 resistance. But with 0.5979 support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Break of 0.6213 will extend the corrective rise from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6416. On the downside, break of 0.5979 will now indicate completion of rise from 0.5506. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.5506.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.5506 extended to as high as 0.7365 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 0.7135 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rebound from 0.5506 is strong and steep. Bullish convergence condition is seen in monthly MACD. 55 month EMA is also taken out. The case of long term reversal is building up. Focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there will confirm bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.7635 will retain bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7227; (P) 0.7270; (R1) 0.7301; More…

Despite spiking to 0.7314, AUD/USD quickly reversed from there. Subsequent breach of 0.7228 support turned resistance suggests that whole corrective rebound from 0.7084 has completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.7143 support first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. On the upside, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7715; (P) 0.7746; (R1) 0.7806; More…

AUD/USD rebounds ahead of 0.7641 support, but stays below 0.7819 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD’s correction from 0.8006 extended last week and hit as low as 0.7621. Further decline cannot be ruled out this week. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.7563 support holds. Break of 0.7837 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.8006 high. However, firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6758; (P) 0.6803; (R1) 0.6835; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.7135 is in progress. As noted before, corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Retest of 0.6680 should be seen next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7008 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7135 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7344 last week but failed to sustain above 0.7314 resistance and closed lower. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7199 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD stays in consolidation below 0.7243 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.7076 support holds, another rally could still be see. Break of 07243 will resume larger rise from 0.5506. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7076 support should confirm short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6804). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7378; (P) 0.7410; (R1) 0.7429; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.8006 could be correcting the whole up trend from 0.5506. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120. On the upside, break of 0.7442 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7099; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7144; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7052 extends higher today and focus is back on 0.7168 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest that the corrective decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003 already. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside to resume the rebound from 0.6722 through 0.7295. On the downside, though, sustained break of 0.7052 will target 0.7004 first. Break will resume the fall from 0.7295 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is still expected to extend. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6151; (P) 0.6197; (R1) 0.6277; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.5506 is extending. Further rise could be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6416. On the downside, break of 0.5979 will now indicate completion of rise from 0.5506. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.5506.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7775; (P) 0.7808; (R1) 0.7861; More…

At this point, AUD/USD is staying in range above 0.7712 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook will remains mildly bearish as long as 0.7892 minor resistance holds. But still it’s limited below 0.7892 resistance. Such rebound could still be a corrective move only. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.7712 extended higher last week. The break of near term trend line resistance is taken as first sign of reversal. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside for 0.7892 minor resistsance Break there will affirm this bullish case and target 0.7988 and above. On the downside, below 0.7772 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7712. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.8135.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6601; (P) 0.6653; (R1) 0.6684; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 0.6698 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will now remain bearish as long as 0.6915 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s strong was rebound last week was capped below 0.6666 resistance, and followed by equally steep decline. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with focus on 0.6503 support. Decisive break there will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.7472 last week and breached 0.7500 key support level. But there was no follow through selling and the pair recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. As long as 0.7583 minor resistance holds, the consolidation should be relatively brief and recent fall should resume sooner rather than later. Below 0.7472 and sustained break of 0.7500 will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. However, break of 0.7583 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7472 at 0.7725 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation last week and outlook is unchanged. Whole corrective pattern from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.7105 already. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.7279 minor support holds. Above 0.7477 will target 0.7530 support turned resistance first. However, break of 0.7279 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7105 low instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains is back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7427; (P) 0.7460; (R1) 0.7493; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Pull back from 0.7660 short term top is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7346). On the upside, above 0.7518 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6988; (P) 0.7002; (R1) 0.7032; More…

AUD/USD accelerates to as high as 0.7101 so far today. Break of 0.7064 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise form 0.5506. Intraday bias is now on the upside for near term target of 61.8% projection of 0.6402 to 0.7064 from 0.6776 at 0.7185. On the downside, break of 0.6963 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.