Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6921; (P) 0.6935; (R1) 0.6955; More…

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays below 0.7064 high. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect correction from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7209 last week but failed to sustain above 0.7192 support turned resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.7209 and sustained trading above 0.7192 should confirm completion of the pull back from 0.7413. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.7413 high. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Yet, AUD/USD struggled to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7309). It’s also limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Hence, there is not enough evidence for reversal yet. Down trend from 1.1079 could still extend through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6652; (P) 0.6704; (R1) 0.6737; More…

Break of 0.6648 minor support argues that AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6563 has completed at 0.6758, ahead of 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6563 low and 0.6546 fibonacci level. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 0.7156 and carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7902; (P) 0.7934; (R1) 0.7977; More…

As noted before, the pull back from 0.8135 has completed at 0.7758 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside for retesting 0.8135 first. Decisive break there will resume medium term up trend for 0.8451 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall towards 0.7500 key support. We’d look for strong support from 0.7500 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7079; (P) 0.7095; (R1) 0.7107; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. With 0.7121 minor resistance intact, further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 0.7003 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, firm break of 0.7121 will argue that decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003. In that case, further rise should be seen to 0.7206 resistance to confirm. More importantly, in that case, corrective three wave structure of the fall from 0.7296 to 0.7003 would suggest that rise from 0.6722 low is extending through 0.7295.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7344 last week but failed to sustain above 0.7314 resistance and closed lower. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7199 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7393 extended to as low as 0.7033 last week and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remain son the downside for 0.7020 key support first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7148 resistance holds. However, firm break of 0.7148 will suggest that correction from 0.7020 is extending with another rise. intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 0.7393 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD edged higher last week as rebound from 0.7105 extended. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7452 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7771. On the downside, however, break of 0.7452 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7386) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7210; (P) 0.7246; (R1) 0.7271; More…

Downside momentum is diminishing in AUD/USD, but with 0.7320 minor resistance intact, fall from 0.7277 is still in progress for 0.7105 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6429; (P) 0.6452; (R1) 0.6475; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 0.6520 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7067; (P) 0.7108; (R1) 0.7160; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.7003 accelerated to as high as 0.7168 so far. Decisive break of 0.7121 suggests that corrective decline from 0.7295 has completed with three waves down to 0.7003 already. More importantly, rise from 0.6722 might be in progress. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7206 resistance first. Break will target 0.7295 high next. On the downside, break of 0.7056 is needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.7003. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6905; (P) 0.6946; (R1) 0.6980; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Current fall is part of the corrective pattern from 0.8006. Deeper decline would be seen to for 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 0.7027 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed in a medium term down trend.

AUD/USD breached 0.6680 support briefly last week but failed to close below. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 0.6769 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6915 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6457 support last week confirmed resumption of whole fall from 0.7156. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, above 0.6479 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7708; (P) 0.7725; (R1) 0.7748; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7673/7890 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor with 0.7673 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7890 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, on the downside, firm break of 0.7673 will suggest that correction from 0.8006 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7737; (P) 0.7771; (R1) 0.7813; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7819 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7355; (R1) 0.7384; More….

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 0.7413 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 0.5506. Next target is 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, though, break of 0.7265 support will turn bias back to the downside, to extend the consolidation from 0.7413 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

AUDUSD has been consolidating since the end of April around the Ichimoku cloud and the 40-period simple moving average (SMA) currently at 0.6473. The price is trading within the 0.6378 – 0.6570 area with the stochastics approaching the overbought zone and the RSI touching the 50 level, suggesting some more gains in the 4-hour chart.

If prices continue to head higher, resistance should come from the 0.6520 barrier. A jump above it would reinforce the upside move and open the way towards the seven-week high of 0.6570, which has been a strong resistance in the past. A successful attempt above this hurdle would shift the neutral outlook to bullish, meeting the 0.6685 peak, achieved on March 9.

However, should a downside reversal take form, immediate support would likely come from the 0.6400 – 0.6378 zone. If there is a break below these levels, the market would switch to bearish, challenging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from the 17-year low of 0.5506 to 0.6570 at 0.6315, with the next support coming from the 0.6215 – 0.6250 area.

Summarizing, the pair is still in a neutral tone and traders may wait for any break outside of the current range of 0.6378 – 0.6570.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6794; (P) 0.6808; (R1) 0.6835; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Recent development suggests that rebound from 0.6670 has completed at 0.6929. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6841 minor resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.6769 will resume the fall to retest 0.6670 low. However, break of 0.6841 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5923; (P) 0.6036; (R1) 0.6113; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. We’d stay cautious on recovery from around 0.6008 key support. On the upside, break of 0.6186 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound. However, sustained break of 0.6008 will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5716.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. 0.6008 (2008 low) is already met. Sustained break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6670 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.