Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7752; (P) 0.7795; (R1) 0.7819; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. The correction from 0.8006 could still extend with another fall through 0.7691 temporary low. But overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7563 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7844 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.8006. Break till extend larger up trend from 0.5506. However, decisive break of 0.7563 will bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7235; (P) 0.7260; (R1) 0.7308; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 extends higher today and the breach of 0.7310 support turned resistance indicate that a short term bottom is in place. And there is risk that whole decline from 0.7777 is finished too. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394, which is close to 55 days EMA. Sustained break there will turn focus back to 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. Meanwhile, rejection from there will retain bearishness for 0.7144 support. Break of 0.7144 support will likely extend the larger down trend through 0.6826.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7422; (P) 0.7442; (R1) 0.7457; More…

Despite some loss of upside momentum, with 0.7394 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7503 support turned resistance. Correction from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.7105 already. Sustained break of 0.7530 will pave the way to retest 0.8006 high. On the downside, break of 0.7394 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6634; (P) 0.6672; (R1) 0.6693; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first, and risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6817 resistance holds. Consolidation pattern from 0.6563 could have completed with three waves to 0.6817. Below 0.6635 will bring retest of 0.6563 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451.

In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6030; (P) 0.6168; (R1) 0.6258; More…

AUD/USD’s fall extends to as low as 0.5981 so far today and breaches 0.6008 key support. We’d be cautious on recovery from this level. On the upside, break of 0.6186 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound. However, sustained break of 0.6008 will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5716.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. 0.6008 (2008 low) is already met. Sustained break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6670 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7341; (P) 0.7362; (R1) 0.7390; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continues above 0.7288. As long as 0.7443 resistance holds, outlook stays bearish for further decline. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the fall from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7000; (P) 0.7022; (R1) 0.7039; More…

AUD/USD lost momentum after hitting 0.7031 and 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.6938 resistance turned support holds. Break of 0.7031 will target 0.7082 key resistance. However, break of 0.6938 will be the first sign of near term reversal. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6838 support next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7506).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6886; (P) 0.6911; (R1) 0.6931; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery was limited below 4 hour 55 EMA and drops notably today. But it’s staying above 0.6864 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.6988/7069 resistance zone to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6492; (P) 0.6509; (R1) 0.6539; More…

AUD/USD is extending consolidations from 0.6468 and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.6468 will resume the fall from 0.6870, as part of the down trend from 0.7156, to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7531; (P) 0.7553; (R1) 0.7590; More…

AUD/USD rises to as high as 0.7621 so far as rebound from 0.7411 resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside further rally. But such rebound is viewed as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7475 will bring retest of 0.7411 low first. Break will resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6890; (P) 0.6913; (R1) 0.6947; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged at this point. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 0.7022 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6831 will extend the decline from 0.7295 to retest 0.6722 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.7022 will indicate near term bullish reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.7205 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7079; (P) 0.7095; (R1) 0.7107; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. With 0.7121 minor resistance intact, further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 0.7003 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, firm break of 0.7121 will argue that decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003. In that case, further rise should be seen to 0.7206 resistance to confirm. More importantly, in that case, corrective three wave structure of the fall from 0.7296 to 0.7003 would suggest that rise from 0.6722 low is extending through 0.7295.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7064; (P) 0.7100; (R1) 0.7154; More…

Stronger than expected rebound in AUD/USD and break of 0.7114 minor resistance mixed up the near term outlook. On the upside, break of 0.7243 resistance will suggests that the correction from 0.7413 has completed and bring retest of this high. On the downside, through, break of 0.7005 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6916) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7799; (P) 0.7821; (R1) 0.7852; More…

AUD/USD retreats mildly after hitting 0.7844 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise could still be seen. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886) to form a short term top. Meanwhile, break of 0.7964 support will suggest that rebound from 0.7500 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7500.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8032). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7221; (P) 0.7254; (R1) 0.7317; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7413 is extending. With 0.7135 support intact, rise from 0.5506 is still in favor to resume sooner, rather than later, through 0.7413. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7113; (P) 0.7130; (R1) 0.7144; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is staying neutral as the pair remains above 0.7005/20 support zone. on the downside. . With 0.7342 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7413, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. However, firm break of 0.7243 will bring retest of 0.7413 high.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6916) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

AUD/USD’s rebound last week argues that a short term bottom was formed at 0.6828, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7187). On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7555 extended lower last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week first. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7394) will argue that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555. That would also argue that fall from 0.8006 is ready to resume through 0.7105 low. On the upside, above 0.7470 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7555 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7241; (P) 0.7279; (R1) 0.7334; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for some consolidations. But another rise is mildly in favor with 0.7320 minor resistance intact. Below 0.7219 will target 0.7105 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7612; (P) 0.7634; (R1) 0.7653; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 0.8006 could extend lower. Break of 0.7562 will target 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7620 from 0.7848 at 0.7462. We’ll look for strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7848 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the correction. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.