Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7639; (P) 0.7685; (R1) 0.7715; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7633 so far today. Break of 0.7642 confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7500 key support level next. Break there will indicate medium term reversal. On the upside, above 0.7682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6941; (P) 0.6975; (R1) 0.6993; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6962 minor support suggests that corrective recovery from 0.6864 has completed earlier than expected at 0.7022. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.6864 low first. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 0.7295. On the upside, break of 0.7022 will resume the rebound to 0.7069 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7081; (P) 0.7116; (R1) 0.7136; More…

AUD/USD’s breach of 0.7098 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 0.7040 has completed at 0.7159 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.7040 low first. Break there will resume recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, above 0.7159 will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6879; (P) 0.6906; (R1) 0.6925; More…

AUD/USD recovered to 0.6933 but failed to sustain above 0.6930 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. As noted before, rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. On the downside, break of 0.6849 will target 0.6754 support to confirm this bearish case. However, firm break of 0.6930 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7487).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7579; (P) 0.7663; (R1) 0.7709; More…

AUD/USD’s correction from 0.8006 extends lower today. Intraday bias in back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7620 from 0.7848 at 0.7462. We’ll look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, note that AUD/USD has also completed a head and should top (ls: 0.7819; h: 0.8006; rs: 0.7848). Firm break of 0.7462 will argue that it’s correcting whole up trend from 0.5506. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7848 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7719; (P) 0.7739; (R1) 0.7754; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. We’re favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 has completed with three waves down to 0.7530. Above 0.7760 will extend the rebound to 0.7848 resistance first. Break there should confirm this bullish case and bring retest of 0.8006 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7583 support holds.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7351; (P) 0.7382; (R1) 0.7406; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as a temporary top was formed at 0.7413 with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7135 support holds. Break of 0.7413 will resume larger rise from 0.5506 to 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7323; (P) 0.7347; (R1) 0.7371; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.7275 temporary low is extending. But further decline is in favor as long as 0.7431 minor resistance holds. Rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is still in progress. On the downside, below 0.7275 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. However, break of 0.7431 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6883; (P) 0.6900; (R1) 0.6923; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 0.6849 temporary is in progress. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. On the downside, break of 0.6849 will target 0.6754 support to confirm this bearish case. However, break of 0.6930 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7487).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7376; (P) 0.7415; (R1) 0.7458; More…

With 0.7351 minor support intact, further rise is expected in AUD/USD. Current rally from 0.5506 should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6903; (P) 0.6918; (R1) 0.6931; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 0.6864 is in progress. Further recovery could be seen but upside should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7611; (R1) 0.7640; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first, despite today’s steep pull back. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7639 will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7507 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7228; (P) 0.7258; (R1) 0.7291; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7201 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7775; (P) 0.7808; (R1) 0.7861; More…

At this point, AUD/USD is staying in range above 0.7712 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook will remains mildly bearish as long as 0.7892 minor resistance holds. But still it’s limited below 0.7892 resistance. Such rebound could still be a corrective move only. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6332; (P) 0.6366; (R1) 0.6419; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.6284 is extending. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6500 resistance holds. Below 0.6284 will resume the fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6619; (R1) 0.6641; More...

While AUD/USD’s retreat from 0.6713 extends lower, it’s staying above 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6735; (P) 0.6744; (R1) 0.6755; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as current rally continues to 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100% projection at 0.6971. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.6723 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg. Break of 0.6870 will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6361 at 0.6962.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6631; (P) 0.6645; (R1) 0.6669; More...

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6591 extends higher today, but stays below 0.6713 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579 intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5854; (P) 0.5915; (R1) 0.6015; More…

AUD/USD’s corrective rise from 0.5506 extends higher today and outlook is unchanged. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5699 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6683; (P) 0.6721; (R1) 0.6746; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Pull back from 0.6870 short term top is in progress. But strong support would be seen from channel support (now at 0.6677) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6759 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6870. However, sustained break of 0.6689 will bring deeper decline to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6612).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.