Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6652; (P) 0.6704; (R1) 0.6737; More…

Break of 0.6648 minor support argues that AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6563 has completed at 0.6758, ahead of 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6563 low and 0.6546 fibonacci level. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 0.7156 and carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6403; (P) 0.6425; (R1) 0.6447; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point, as consolidation from 0.6356 is extending. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. Break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 short term top extended lower last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6631. Strong rebound would be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6754 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6798.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg. Break of 0.6870 will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6361 at 0.6962.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6766; (P) 0.6821; (R1) 0.6901; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6698 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6915). Sustained break there will target 0.7135 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6823 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.6680 low will will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7477; (P) 0.7503; (R1) 0.7538; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further raise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. On the downside, below 0.7465 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6844; (P) 0.6896; (R1) 0.6937; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Correction from 0.7156 could still extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779 to bring rebound. For now, break of 0.7156 is not expected soon, as correction from there should extend for a while.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6907; (P) 0.6922; (R1) 0.6942; More…

AUD/USD’s correctively recovery from 0.6831 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 0.7022 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6903 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6831 low first. Break there will resume the decline from 0.7295 to 0.6722 low next. However, firm break of 0.7022 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.7205 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6407; (P) 0.6427; (R1) 0.6454; More…

A temporary low is formed at 0.6388 in AUD/USD with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen. But upside should be limited by 0.6492 minor resistance. Below 0.6388 should resume larger fall from 0.6870 through 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378 to 100% projection at 0.6215.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6682; (P) 0.6698; (R1) 0.6715; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 0.6639 will resume the fall from 0.6870 short term top to 0.6541 support next. On the upside, though, break of 0.6759 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed already. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.6870 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.8065 short term top extended lower last week. The pair lost some downside momentum after hitting 0.7838. With 0.7948 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7948 will argue that the pull back is completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8065.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7156; (P) 0.7183; (R1) 0.7210; More…

Focus stays on 0.7192 support turned resistance in AUD/USD. Sustained break there will indicate completion of the pull back from 0.7413. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the fall from 0.7413, which is a correction to rise from 0.5506, to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise form 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6667; (P) 0.6792; (R1) 0.6856; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.6680 support will resume larger down trend. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.6915) will target 0.7135 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6529; (P) 0.6571; (R1) 0.6601; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Risk stays mildly on the downside at this point. Break of 0.6524 will affirm the case of rejection by channel resistance, and resume the fall from 0.6689 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6500) and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6689 will resume the rise from 0.6269 instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.7156 as the second leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7342; (P) 0.7377; (R1) 0.7399; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7309 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6879; (P) 0.6896; (R1) 0.6924; More…

AUD/USD’s breach of 0.6929 resistance suggests resumption of whole rise form 0.6670. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. On the downside, below 0.6878 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stays on the upside as long as 0.6800 support holds.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7477 extended lower to 0.7169 last week, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6722; (P) 0.6746; (R1) 0.6793; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside for 0.6680 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6855 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7225; (P) 0.7247; (R1) 0.7273; More…

With 0.7320 minor resistance intact, fall from 0.7277 is still in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.7105 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6688; (P) 0.6711; (R1) 0.6750; More…

Intraday bias in AUD?USD remains neutral for the moment, and further decline is still mildly in favor. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 0.6769 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6915 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7352; (R1) 0.7371; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline and break of 0.7295 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.7201 has completed at 0.7381 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7201 short term bottom. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8135. In case of anther recovery as consolidation from 0.7201 extends, we’d expect upside to be limited by 0.7425 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a correction should be seen first, with stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7201 at 0.7558. The down trend from 0.8135 will resume after the correction completes.