Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6600; (P) 0.6629; (R1) 0.6672; More…

AUD/USD rebounds in early US session with break of 0.6657 resistance. We’re disregarding the spike low earlier today, due to extreme thin Asian market. Corrective rebound from 0.6433 is extending with intraday bias to the upside to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6720) and above. We’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6803 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6919; (P) 0.6983; (R1) 0.7016; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6828 to 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6648; (P) 0.6687; (R1) 0.6727; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range above 0.6639 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 0.6639 will resume the fall from 0.6870 short term top to 0.6541 support next. On the upside, though, break of 0.6759 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed already. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.6870 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7042; (P) 0.7095; (R1) 0.7175; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise should target 61.8% projection of 0.6402 to 0.7064 from 0.6776 at 0.7185. Sustained break there will target long term EMA level at 0.7311 next. On the downside, break of 0.6963 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7203; (P) 0.7221; (R1) 0.7255; More…

AUD/USD is still staying in range below 0.7275 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise could be seen with 0.7109 intact. above 0.7275 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 0.7311 long term EMA. However, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7109 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for correction towards 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6817). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7364; (P) 0.7389; (R1) 0.7419; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7288 is still extending. Further fall is expected as long as 0.7443 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

AUD/USD rose further to 0.7545 last week and met 100% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7541. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.7377 support to bring another rally. Break of 0.7545 will target 161.8% projection at 0.7771.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6761; (P) 0.6786; (R1) 0.6818; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. The corrective rise from 0.6670 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6710 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6711; (P) 0.6752; (R1) 0.6784; More…

A temporary top is in place at 0.6796 with current retreat. Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.6796 will resume the rise from 0.6169 to 0.6871 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.6680 support turned resistance confirms medium term bottoming at 0.6169. It’s too early to call for trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6360; (P) 0.6377; (R1) 0.6393; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. But outlook stays bearish as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. Below 0.6356 will resume larger down. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7264; (P) 0.7279; (R1) 0.7305; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.7084 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise could target 0.7361 resistance. But we’d expect upside to be limited limited below there to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6533; (P) 0.6564; (R1) 0.6588; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery resumed by breaching 0.6578 but upside is capped below 0.6621 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment, and larger fall is still in favor to continue. On the downside, below 0.6520 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6442 first. Firm break there will resume the the decline from 0.6870 towards 0.6269 low. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.6621 will turn near term outlook bullish for 0.6870 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6718; (P) 0.6758; (R1) 0.6788; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6169 resumed by break through 0.6850 as well as 0.6871 fibonacci level. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6271 to 0.6796 from 0.6641 at 0.6965. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7166 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6728 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6912) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7435; (P) 0.7465; (R1) 0.7519; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. We’re continue to expect strong support from 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414 to complete the correction from 0.8006. On the upside, break of of 0.7598 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance first. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favor the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6845 last week but quickly lost momentum and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first, and near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6641 support holds. Break of 0.6845 will target 0.6871 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.6641 support will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it’s too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6922) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7821; (P) 0.7839; (R1) 0.7857; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 0.7890 temporary top. But outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.7676 support holds. Above 0.7890 will extend the rise from 0.7530 for retesting 0.8006 high. Break will resume larger up trend. However, break of 0.7673 will likely extend the correction from 0.8006 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6703; (P) 0.6730; (R1) 0.6757; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 0.6693 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6422; (P) 0.6458; (R1) 0.6477; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6442 support confirms resumption of whole fall from 0.6870. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. Decisive break there will pave the way to 0.6269 low, and possibly further to 100% projection at 0.6215. On the upside, above 0.6429 minor resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7059; (P) 0.7132; (R1) 0.7169; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.7034 support holds. Current development raised the chance that whole fall corrective fall from 0.8005 has completed at 0.6828. Above 0.7282 will extend the rebound to 0.7660 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.7034 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 0.6828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7848; (P) 0.7898; (R1) 0.7937; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7856 so far and correction from 0.8124 extends. Overall, with 0.7807 support intact, larger rally is still expected to resume later. Above 0.7985 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high first. Break will target 00% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7670).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.