Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7718; (P) 0.7738; (R1) 0.7766; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7837 will suggest that the correction from 0.8006 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 0.7620 will target 0.7563 support. Firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7477; (P) 0.7495; (R1) 0.7517; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral for the moment. Rise from 0.7158 is likely completed at 0.7748. And, near term trend has reversed. Sustained break of 0.7490 support should confirm this bearish case. And, deeper fall should be seen back to 0.7158 support zone next. On the upside, above 0.7351 minor resistance with dampen this view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7586/7678 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8142) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7627; (P) 0.7652; (R1) 0.7691; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.7411 is seen as a correction. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. On the downside, below 0.7593 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7475 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall through 0.7411 to 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). However, sustained break of 0.7688 will dampen our bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.7585 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7135 resumed last week and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Retest of 0.6680 should be seen next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7008 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7135 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7360; (P) 0.7379; (R1) 0.7406; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 0.7413 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rebound from 0.5506 and target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7265 support will extend the consolidation from 0.7413 with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6991 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6800; (P) 0.6829; (R1) 0.6847; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.6810 resistance turned support. Firm break should indicate completion of corrective rebound from 0.6677. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 0.6723 support first. Break will target 0.6670 low. On the upside in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7457; (P) 0.7502; (R1) 0.7531; More…

Deeper decline is expected in AUD/USD as long as 0.7583 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.7500 key support level will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. Nonetheless, break of 0.7583 will suggest short term bottoming. In that case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 0.7642 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6650; (P) 0.6679; (R1) 0.6697; More...

AUD/USD dips mildly today as consolidation from 0.6713 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7517; (P) 0.7552; (R1) 0.7588; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 extends to as high as 0.7608 so far but continues to lose upside momentum. With 0.7448 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen. But upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7707; (P) 0.7731; (R1) 0.7746; More…

With 0.7650 minor support intact, further rise is expected in AUD/USD for 0.7819 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6919; (P) 0.6983; (R1) 0.7016; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6828 to 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7228; (P) 0.7258; (R1) 0.7291; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7201 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7575; (P) 0.7628; (R1) 0.7658; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Current fall is part of the whole decline from 0.8135 and should target 0.7500 key support level next. Break there will indicate medium term reversal. On the upside, above 0.7682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7127; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7203; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise remains in favor as long as 0.7109 support holds. Above 0.7275 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 0.7311 long term EMA. However, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7109 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for correction towards 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6817). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7224; (R1) 0.7262; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this moment. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.7093 will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6256; (P) 0.6350; (R1) 0.6415; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that rebound from 0.5506 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6796; (P) 0.6817; (R1) 0.6833; More…

At this point, we’re still slightly favoring more decline to 0.6754 support. Break will resume the fall from 0.6929 to retest 0.6670 low. However, on the upside, above 0.6862 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6393; (P) 0.6448; (R1) 0.6492; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 0.6411 minor support as well as 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.6411 will indicate rejection by 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508) , and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6269 low. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.6508/10 will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 might be completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should then be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.6700).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6812; (P) 0.6841; (R1) 0.6859; More…

AUD/USD continues to lose upside momentum ahead of 0.6894 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6894 will extend the rally from 0.6269 towards 0.7156 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6796 support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for pullback to 0.6689 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7731 last week but lost momentum quickly to close back into established range. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7528) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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