Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6949; (P) 0.6958; (R1) 0.6969; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Corrective recovery from 0.6864 could have completed at 0.7022 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 0.6864 low. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 0.7295. On the upside, break of 0.7022 will resume the rebound to 0.7069 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD rebounded further to as high as 0.7809 last week before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week first but another rise is expected as long as 0.7725 minor support holds. Above 0.7809 will target 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. However, below 0.7725 will bring retest of 0.7642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.7642 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. And outlooks stays bearish with 0.7784 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7642 will turn bias to the downside to extend recent fall from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

AUD/USD dropped notably after edging higher to 0.7483 last week. But downside was contained well above 0.7309 low as the pair recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. The consolidation from 0.7309 could extend further and above 0.7483 will bring stronger rise. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6387; (P) 0.6411; (R1) 0.6449; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 0.6372 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Fall fro 0.6569 short term top is still in favor to continue and below 0.6372 will target 0.6253 support first. Break there should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7078; (P) 0.7123; (R1) 0.7157; More…

AUD/USD retreated sharply after hitting 0.7168 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is in favor as long as 0.7056 minor support holds. Above 0.7168 will target 0.7295 resistance. Break will resume whole rebound from 0.6722. On the downside, though, break of 0.7056 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7003 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation below 0.7235 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.7116 minor support holds, further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7235 will target 0.7393 resistance. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 0.6722. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7549; (P) 0.7571; (R1) 0.7590; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise from 0.7411. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside to bring decline resumption eventually. On the downside, below 0.7475 will bring retest of 0.7411 low first. Break will resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7070; (P) 0.7134; (R1) 0.7166; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as as 0.7084 so far as fall from 0.7314 extends. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Larger decline from 0.8135 is likely resuming. Break of 0.7084 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, break of 0.7161 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

AUD/USD drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded last week. Initial focus is back on 0.7314 resistance this week. Sustained break there will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7164 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7851; (P) 0.7865; (R1) 0.7885; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7712 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Prior break of near term trend line resistance is taken as first sign of reversal. Break of 0.7892 resistance will affirm this bullish case and target 0.7988 and above. On the downside, below 0.7772 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7712. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.8135.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7271; (P) 0.7293; (R1) 0.7332; More…

Sideway consolidation in AUD/USD continues and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7135 support holds, further rise remains in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will resume the rally from 0.5506 and target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. However, on the downside, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly to 0.6804 last week but failed to sustained above 0.6792 resistance and dropped sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7145) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7148; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7203; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7084/7228 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.7084 short term bottom could extend through 0.7228. But it’s seen as a correction and upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6301; (P) 0.6396; (R1) 0.6446; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6355 minor support suggests that corrective recovery from 0.6169 has completed at 0.6521, missing 0.6539 resistance. Rejection by falling 55 day EMA maintains near term bearishness. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6169. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 138.2% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.5781.For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6539 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7253; (P) 0.7273; (R1) 0.7296; More…

AUD/USD lost downside momentum after hitting near term channel support, and intraday bias is turned neutral first. But further decline is expected as long as 0.7369 resistance holds. We’d holding on to the view that rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555. ON the downside, break of 0.7248 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. On the upside, however, break of 0.7369 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555 instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6425; (P) 0.6456; (R1) 0.6511; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 0.6363 is still extending. Another recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.7003 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.7121 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7003 will resume the fall from 0.7295 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, sustained break of 0.7121 resistance will dampen this view and bring stronger rise to 0.7206 and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6659; (P) 0.6684; (R1) 0.6702; More….

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.6630 so far today and the break of 0.6662/70 support zone should confirm long term down trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.6933 to 0.6662 from 0.6750 at 0.6583, and then 100% projection at 0.6479. On the upside, break of 0.6750 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation in range of 0.7309/7483 and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring strong rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).