AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100% projection at 0.6971. On the downside, however, break of 0.6723 support will turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg. Break of 0.6870 will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6361 at 0.6962.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.7472 last week but failed to sustain below 0.7490 support and rebounded. The development argues that rise from 0.7158 is possibly not completed yet. And another rally could be seen through 0.7748 resistance to test key long term fibonacci level at 0.7849.

Initial bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside this week for 0.7678 resistance. Break there will confirm completion of the pull back from 0.7748. And rise from 0.7158 would be resuming. AUD/USD should target 0.7748 and above next. On the downside, below 0.7530 minor support will turn bias neutral again, with focus back on 0.7472 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8144) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7128; (P) 0.7188; (R1) 0.7229; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as it retreated sharply after hitting 0.7247. Further rise is still mildly in favor with 0.7050 minor support intact. Above 0.7247 will target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6662; (P) 0.6729; (R1) 0.6769; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside for retesting 0.6563 low. Consolidation pattern from there might have completed with three waves to 0.6817 already. Firm break of 0.6563 will resume larger fall from 0.7156. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.6817 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6859; (P) 0.6894; (R1) 0.6927; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6949 temporary top is extending. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6721 support holds. Break of 0.6949 will resume larger rise from 0.6169 to 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7444 next. However, firm break of 0.6721 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6352; (P) 0.6447; (R1) 0.6503; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6362 could extend. Another recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited well below 0.6698 support turned resistance. Break of 0.6362 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. With 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461 firmly taken out, next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7386; (P) 0.7413; (R1) 0.7446; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as the consolidation from 0.7309 is extending. More sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7031; (P) 0.7050; (R1) 0.7069; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation above 0.6988 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. More consolidation would be seen. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.7081 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. Prior break of 0.7003 suggests resumption of whole fall from 0.7295. On the downside, break of 0.6988 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. However, sustained break of 0.7081 will dampen this bearish case and turn focus back to 0.7205 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7588; (P) 0.7622; (R1) 0.7650; More…

Despite today’s rebound in AUD/USD, 4 hours MACD is staying below sign line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As noted before, rebound from 0.7411 is seen as a correction. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. On the downside, below 0.7592 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7475 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall through 0.7411 to 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). However, sustained break of 0.7688 will dampen our bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.7585 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7534; (P) 0.7574; (R1) 0.7604; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.7748 should target 0.7490 support first. Firm break of 0.7490 will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support. On the upside, however, above 0.7678 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. And in this case, rise from 0.7159 could extend towards long term retracement level at 0.7849 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8165) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6998; (P) 0.7060; (R1) 0.7095; More…

AUD/USD drops further to as low as 0.6966 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of 0.6991/2 support will confirm resumption of larger down trend from 0.8006, and carries larger bearish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. On the upside, break of 0.7089 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

AUD/USD edged lower last week but couldn’t sustain below 0.7005 support yet. Initial bias stays neutral this week with focus on 0.7005. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of the corrective fall from 0.7413. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. For now, downside breakout will remain in favor as long as 0.7157 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6927) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Yet, AUD/USD struggled to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7306). It’s also limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Hence, there is not enough evidence for reversal yet. Down trend from 1.1079 could still extend through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6589; (P) 0.6613; (R1) 0.6642; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6662 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement from 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6661) to limit upside. Break of 0.6509 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6433 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.6662 will bring stronger corrective rise to 61.8% retracement at 0.6803.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6689; (P) 0.6715; (R1) 0.6740; More…

AUD/USD dips mildly today but stays in range of 0.6619/6804. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6707; (P) 0.6780; (R1) 0.6825; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.6871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445 and possibly below. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169 instead.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6894) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7811; (P) 0.7828; (R1) 0.7850; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886). Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.7896/44 to bring a short term top. Break of 0.7804 minor support should turn intraday bias back to the downside for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.7764) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8032). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7722; (P) 0.7746; (R1) 0.7779; More…

A temporary low is in place at 0.7712 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.7892 resistance holds. Below 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 100% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7758 from 0.7988 at 0.7611.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6719; (P) 0.6743; (R1) 0.6755; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6677 is in progress. Further rise could be seen. But upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.6670/7 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.7084 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. With a temporary top in place at 0.7228, initial bias is neutral this week first. Another rise could be seen as the correction from 0.7084 extends. But upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7129; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7198; More…

Immediate focus is now on 0.7172 resistance in AUD/USD. Sustained break there should confirm short term bottoming at 0.6992. More importantly, whole corrective fall from 0.8006 might be finished too after defending 0.6991 key structural support. Stronger rise should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7275). Firm break there will target 0.7555 resistance to confirm this bullish case. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6991 will carry larger bearish implication and extend the down trend from 0.8006.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 0.6991 key support level. Strong rebound from there will argue that up trend from 0.5506 is still intact for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the up trend is over, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.