AUD/USD rose further to 0.7545 last week and met 100% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7541. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.7377 support to bring another rally. Break of 0.7545 will target 161.8% projection at 0.7771.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

• AUDUSD reversed from strong resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6620

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the key resistance level 0.6685 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of May) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

This resistance zone was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December.

AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6620 (former minor support from the end of June).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7674; (P) 0.7711; (R1) 0.7744; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment, and further rise is in favor with 0.7673 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7890 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, on the downside, firm break of 0.7673 will suggest that correction from 0.8006 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6619; (P) 0.6647; (R1) 0.6678; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.6708 resistance holds. Below 0.6604 will bring retest of 0.6563 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. On the upside, above 0.6708 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 0.6563 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7693; (P) 0.7753; (R1) 0.7787; More…

AUD/USD faced strong rejection from near term falling channel resistance. Break of 0.7743 indicates that rebound from 0.7642 has completed at 0.7812. And larger fall from 0.8135 might be resuming. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.7642 first. Break will target 0.7500 key support level.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7112; (P) 0.7139; (R1) 0.7189; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside, as rise from is extending. Next target is 0.7265 resistance. Firm break there will raise the chance of larger trend reversal and target 0.7760 structural resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.7034 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7211; (P) 0.7243; (R1) 0.7295; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7117; (P) 0.7138; (R1) 0.7158; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6966 is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside for 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that 0.6991 key support was defended and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, below 0.7032 will bring retest of 0.6966. Sustained break of 0.6991 will resume the larger fall from 0.8006 and carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6872; (P) 0.6910; (R1) 0.6948; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 0.7062. Overall outlook stays bullish as long as 0.6721 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7062 will resume rise from 0.6169 to 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7168 next. However, firm break of 0.6721 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7198; (P) 0.7237; (R1) 0.7266; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as range trading continues. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7672; (P) 0.7699; (R1) 0.7724; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.7819 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 0.7641 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend form 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, break of 0.7641 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6987; (P) 0.7008; (R1) 0.7022; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.6984 so far today. Breach of 0.6988 temporary low suggests resumption of fall from 0.7295. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. On the upside, break of 0.7069 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6449; (P) 0.6484; (R1) 0.6547; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 might be completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should then be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.6708). Meanwhile, rejection by 0.6510 will retain near term bearishness.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6344; (P) 0.6387; (R1) 0.6409; More…

AUD/USD’s steep decline now suggests that rebound from 0.6269 has completed at 0.6521. The development also indicates rejection by 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508), and retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6269 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.7156, to retest 0.6169 low. On the upside, above 0.6427 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6845; (P) 0.6863; (R1) 0.6895; More…

A temporary low is formed at 0.6831 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited below 0.7022 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6831 will extend the decline from 0.7295 to retest 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7344; (P) 0.7386; (R1) 0.7424; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.7346 with the current recovery, ahead of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.7676 resistance to bring another fall. Firm break of 0.7382 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7497; (P) 0.7517; (R1) 0.7531; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.7539 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7372 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7555 should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. However, break of 0.7372 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7471; (P) 0.7516; (R1) 0.7542; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7472 support. Firm break there will revive the case that whole rise from 0.7158 is completed at 0.7740. In that case, AUD/USD will target a test on 0.7158 key support level next. On the upside, above 0.7562 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7609 resistance. Break will target a test on 0.7748 high.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8144) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7559; (P) 0.7586; (R1) 0.7610; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery, and with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Correction from 0.8006 could still extend lower. Below 0.7562 will target 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7620 from 0.7848 at 0.7462. We’ll look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, note that AUD/USD has also completed a head and should top (ls: 0.7819; h: 0.8006; rs: 0.7848). Firm break of 0.7462 will argue that it’s correcting whole up trend from 0.5506. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7848 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6270; (P) 0.6351; (R1) 0.6394; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in range above 0.6824 despite current decline. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.6500 resistance intact. Break of 0.6284 will resume the fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.