Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6136; (P) 0.6314; (R1) 0.6415; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6086 next. On the upside, above 0.6385 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 0.6684 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6743; (P) 0.6780; (R1) 0.6817; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6817 but quickly retreated after failing to sustain above 0.6804 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6817 resistance will indicate completion of whole fall from 0.7156, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. However, break of 0.6716 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.6804. That would retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6563/72 support zone, with prospect of resuming the whole decline from 0.7156.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7117; (P) 0.7138; (R1) 0.7158; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6966 is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside for 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that 0.6991 key support was defended and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, below 0.7032 will bring retest of 0.6966. Sustained break of 0.6991 will resume the larger fall from 0.8006 and carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7327; (P) 0.7366; (R1) 0.7388; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7660 resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.7164 support. On the upside, above 0.7492 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7723; (P) 0.7770; (R1) 0.7814; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.7819 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7641 support holds. Above 0.7819 will extend the up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, break of 0.7641 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7179; (P) 0.7236; (R1) 0.7275; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6820; (P) 0.6839; (R1) 0.6856; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6809 support suggests that corrective recovery from 0.6670 has completed at 0.6929 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 first. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6841 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6929 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6862; (P) 0.6876; (R1) 0.6894; More…

For now, with 0.6807 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor in AUD/USD. Break of 0.6910 support turned resistance will target 0.7802 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6807 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6677 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7242; (P) 0.7285; (R1) 0.7350; More…

AUD/USD rebounded strongly and focus is now back on 0.7314 key resistance. Sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7199 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7682; (P) 0.7714; (R1) 0.7746; More…

AUD/USD is still staying in consolidation from 0.7819 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7641 support holds, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, decisive break of 0.7641 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper correction to 0.7461 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6708; (P) 0.6739; (R1) 0.6762; More…

Immediate focus is now on 0.6693 support in AUD/USD. Firm break there will l resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, break of 0.6782 resistance should now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6900; (P) 0.6955; (R1) 0.6992; More…

AUD/USD breached 4 hour 55 EMA but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will resume the corrective decline from 0.7156 to 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779. On the upside, break 0.7010 minor resistance should bring retest of 0.7156 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6511; (P) 0.6526; (R1) 0.6535; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6468 is extending. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.6468 will resume the fall from 0.6870, as part of the down trend from 0.7156, to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6511; (P) 0.6547; (R1) 0.6608; More…

AUD/USD’s strong break of 0.6558 minor resistance confirm short term bottoming at 0.6457, just ahead of 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6659). Sustained break there will target 0.6817 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Firm break of 0.6451 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection at 0.6224.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6361 continued last week despite interim pull back. Breach of 0.6643 resistance affirms the case that fall from 0.6870 has completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.6464 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6659; (P) 0.6694; (R1) 0.6733; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current development suggests that whole fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rise should be seen to 0.6894 resistance next. Meanwhile, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.6524 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD stayed in range of 0.6641/0.6850 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6641 should confirm rejection by 0.6871 resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6521 resistance turned support. However, sustained break of 0.6871 will extend the rise from 0.6169 to 55 week EMA at 0.6922.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6922) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6894 extended lower last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is on the downside this week for deeper fall. But downside should be contained above 0.6594 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6845 will bring retest of 0.6898 resistance. Decisive break there will resume rise from 0.6457.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6715) holds.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7085) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6839; (P) 0.6862; (R1) 0.6876; More…

AUD/USD drops further to as low as 0683 so far today as decline from 0.7295 is extending. Intraday bias stays the downside for retesting 0.6722 low next. On the upside, above 0.6884 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 0.7022 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. On the downside, below 0.6699 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6619 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance..

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.