AUD/USD’s steep decline last week mixed up the near term outlook. But for now, further fall is in favor this week as long as 0.6740 minor resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625. On the upside, above 0.6740 will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 for now. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) raises the chance that it’s in progress. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall form 0.7156. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

In the long term picture, focus is back on 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119), which is relatively close to 0.7156 resistance. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for resuming the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) at a later stage. However, sustained break there will argue that the trend has reversed, and rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be on track to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7081; (P) 0.7101; (R1) 0.7123; More…

AUD/USD stays below 0.7121 minor resistance despite recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further fall remains in favor with 0.7121 intact. On the downside, break of 0.7003 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, firm break of 0.7121 will argue that decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003. In that case, further rise should be seen to 0.7206 resistance to confirm. More importantly, in that case, corrective three wave structure of the fall from 0.7296 to 0.7003 would suggest that rise from 0.6722 low is extending through 0.7295.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7285; (P) 0.7312; (R1) 0.7335; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside as rise from 0.7169 is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 0.7477 resistance first. Sustained break there will argue that larger decline from 0.8006 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, below 0.7224 minor support should resume the fall from 0.7477 through 0.7169 to retest 0.7105 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6358; (P) 0.6382; (R1) 0.6405; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Current decline is part of the whole fall from 0.7156, next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, break of 0.6520 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6966 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.7379. The break of 0.7313 resistance argues that fall from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. Initial bias stays on the upside this week first 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.7275 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is still in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7917; (P) 0.7965; (R1) 0.8053; More…

While AUD/USD loses some upside momentum, with 0.7877 support intact, further rise is still expected. Current rally from 0.7328 should target next key projection level at 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335. Nonetheless, break of 0.7877 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 0.7711 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7626; (P) 0.7683; (R1) 0.7724; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral for consolidation below 0.7741 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.7461 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 0.7741 will resume current up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6899; (P) 0.6929; (R1) 0.6950; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and deeper decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779. On the upside, break of 0.7010 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6619; (P) 0.6647; (R1) 0.6678; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.6708 resistance holds. Below 0.6604 will bring retest of 0.6563 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. On the upside, above 0.6708 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 0.6563 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7733; (P) 0.7750; (R1) 0.7772; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range below 0.7772 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.7772 resistance will suggest that pull back from 0.7890 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7664 will resume the fall from 0.7890 to 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD gyrated to 0.7076 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that fall from 0.7235 is merely a correction and has completed. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 0.7235 resistance first. Break till resume whole rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 resistance next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. For now, in case of retreat, near term outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.7076 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7262; (P) 0.7305; (R1) 0.7335; More…

AUD/USD is still defending 0.7279 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7409 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 and above, to resume the rebound from 0.7105. ON the downside, however, firm break of 0.7279 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7105 low instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7644; (P) 0.7664; (R1) 0.7697; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged as consolidation pattern from 0.7624 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7896 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Decisive break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124. And, AUD/USD should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7142; (P) 0.7162; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline today suggests that recovery from 0.7054 has completed at 0.7206 already. Intraday bias is cautiously back on the downside for 0.7054 support first. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder term pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.7322 last week but failed to sustain below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. As long as 0.7443 resistance holds, further decline is expected. Break of 0.7322 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.7676 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6639; (P) 0.6661; (R1) 0.6689; More….

AUD/USD is still extending sideway trading below 0.6713 and intraday bias stays neutral. As long as 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) holds, further rally remains in favor. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6832; (P) 0.6856; (R1) 0.6870; More…

Firm break of 0.6849 support suggests resumption of fall from 0.7031. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6754 support. Decisive break there will confirm that corrective rebound form 0.6670 has completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest 0.6670. On the upside, break of 0.6933 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the current fall. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

AUD/USD retreated ahead of 0.6530 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6564), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7799; (P) 0.7831; (R1) 0.7856; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886) resistance zone to bring short term topping. Break of 0.7804 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7719).

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8032). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6759; (P) 0.6769; (R1) 0.6778; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside as fall from 0.6929 is in progress. Deeper decline should be seen to retest 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6803 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But recovery should be limited well below 0.6929 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).