AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6269 resumed last week and hit 0.6541. But subsequent retreat suggested that a temporary top was formed. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. On the upside, break of 0.6541, and sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508, will argue that whole corrective fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7422; (P) 0.7440; (R1) 0.7468; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside as fall from 0.7555 is in progress. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7394) will argue that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555. That would also argue that fall from 0.8006 is ready to resume through 0.7105 low. On the upside, above 0.7470 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7555 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7228; (P) 0.7258; (R1) 0.7291; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7201 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7206; (P) 0.7245; (R1) 0.7271; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral again with the sharp fall from 0.7282. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7313 resistance will argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. However, break of 0.7085 support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6966 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6905; (P) 0.6946; (R1) 0.6980; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7027 minor resistance indicates temporary bottoming at 0.6910. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But still, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds. Break of 0.6910 will extend larger decline from 0.8006 to 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6913; (P) 0.6944; (R1) 0.6996; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will resume the correction from 0.7156 to 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779. On the upside, break of 0.7010 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6699; (P) 0.6718; (R1) 0.6747; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6900) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7374; (P) 0.7400; (R1) 0.7425; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7440 resistance indicates resumption of rebound from 0.6966. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. On the downside, below 0.7372 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But overall, further rise is still expected as long as 0.7164 support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6894; (P) 0.6914; (R1) 0.6949; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6864 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6962; (P) 0.7031; (R1) 0.7068; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside with focus on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7890 to 0.7105 from 0.7555 at 0.6770. On the upside, break of 0.7172 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 0.6991 cluster support will argue that the who up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461). For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6408; (P) 0.6437; (R1) 0.6469; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6356 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. Break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7171; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7267; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7313 resistance will argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. However, break of 0.7085 support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6966 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6559; (P) 0.6576; (R1) 0.6601; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.6269 is in progress for falling channel resistance (now at 0.6665) next. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6520 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7141; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7318; More…

Break of 0.7228 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 0.7029. Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7294) and possibly above. But outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.7660 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.8006. On the downside, below 0.7029 will target 0.6966 low first. Firm break there will confirm this bearish case and target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7195; (P) 0.7235; (R1) 0.7258; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7325 continues. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7164 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6713; (P) 0.6738; (R1) 0.6789; More…

AUD/USD rebounded strongly ahead of 0.6677. But still, it’s staying in consolidation between 0.6677/6822. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618. On the upside, above 0.6822 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6788; (P) 0.6807; (R1) 0.6820; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6394; (P) 0.6408; (R1) 0.6429; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as consolidation from 0.6363 is going to extend further. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7458; (P) 0.7488; (R1) 0.7510; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral, but further rally is expected as long as 0.7455 support holds. As noted before, whole corrective decline from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.6966 already. Break of 0.7660 will resume the rise from 0.6966 to retest 0.8006 high. However, firm break of 0.7455 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6742; (P) 0.6818; (R1) 0.6875; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to complete the whole correction from 0.8006, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.