Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7708; (P) 0.7725; (R1) 0.7748; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7673/7890 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor with 0.7673 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7890 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, on the downside, firm break of 0.7673 will suggest that correction from 0.8006 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7216; (P) 0.7243; (R1) 0.7286; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7105/7288 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. In case of another fall, through 0.7105, we’d continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 support zone to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.7288 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7425 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7005; (P) 0.7048; (R1) 0.7076; More…

Despite mild recovery today, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. The rebound from 0.6722 should have completed at 0.7295 already. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941. Break will bring retest of 0.6722 low. On the upside, above 0.7107 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7312; (P) 0.7353; (R1) 0.7380; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound was limited at 0.7393 and retreated sharply. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For now, as long as 0.7199 support holds, corrective rise from 0.7020 medium term bottom should still extend higher. On the upside, above 0.7393 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446. However, on the downside, break of 0.7199 will suggest that such rebound has completed earlier than expected. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound would be seen to corrective the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7105 extended higher last week. Break of 0.7288 support turned resistance indicates short term bottoming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.7425 resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.7530 support turned resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.7221 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7105 and possibly below. But we’d continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. Subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6355; (P) 0.6374; (R1) 0.6395; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations could be seen above 0.6337 temporary low. But deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6427 resistance holds. Below 0.6337 will resume the fall from 0.6521 and target 0.6269 support next. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.7156, to retest 0.6169 low. Nevertheless, above 0.6427 will bring stronger rebound back to 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7403; (P) 0.7421; (R1) 0.7439; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen first. Further rise is in favor with 0.7322 minor support intact. Above 0.7439 will target 0.7477 resistance first. Firm break there will argue that larger decline from 0.8006 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7541, and then 161.8% projection at 0.7771. On the downside, though, below 0.7322 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7169 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6587; (P) 0.6604; (R1) 0.6620; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.6581 temporary low. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited well below 0.6750 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 0.6581 will resume recent decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2679; (P) 1.2706; (R1) 1.2737; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues below 1.2795. Further rally is mildly in favor with 1.2634 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rally from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2634 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6901; (P) 0.6942; (R1) 0.7010; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Risk stays mildly on the downside as long as 0.7029 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7029 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6737; (P) 0.6756; (R1) 0.6788; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

AUD/USD stayed in range of 0.7673/7890 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this first and another rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7890 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, on the downside, firm break of 0.7673 will suggest that correction from 0.8006 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6269 resumed last week and hit 0.6541. But subsequent retreat suggested that a temporary top was formed. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. On the upside, break of 0.6541, and sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508, will argue that whole corrective fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7212; (P) 0.7230; (R1) 0.7258; More…

With the current recovery, a temporary low is in place at 0.7201 in AUD/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance for fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7422; (P) 0.7440; (R1) 0.7468; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside as fall from 0.7555 is in progress. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7394) will argue that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555. That would also argue that fall from 0.8006 is ready to resume through 0.7105 low. On the upside, above 0.7470 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7555 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7228; (P) 0.7258; (R1) 0.7291; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7201 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7206; (P) 0.7245; (R1) 0.7271; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral again with the sharp fall from 0.7282. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7313 resistance will argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. However, break of 0.7085 support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6966 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6905; (P) 0.6946; (R1) 0.6980; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7027 minor resistance indicates temporary bottoming at 0.6910. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But still, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds. Break of 0.6910 will extend larger decline from 0.8006 to 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7021; (P) 0.7100; (R1) 0.7142; More…

AUD/USD’s decline resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development suggests that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.6966 low first. Break will target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 0.7179 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6695; (P) 0.6742; (R1) 0.6834; More…

AUD/USD retreats mildly after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6790. But further rise remains in favor. Firm break of 0.6790 will extend the rise from 0.6563 short term bottom to 61.8% retracement at 0.6929. However, break of 0.6650 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6563 low again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.