Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7346; (P) 0.7370; (R1) 0.7393; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is still in favor as long as 0.7279 support holds. As noted before, correction from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.7105 already. Above 0.7477 will target 0.7530 support turned resistance first. However, firm break of 0.7279 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 0.7105 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7071; (P) 0.7103; (R1) 0.7122; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 0.7054 is still in progress. Stronger rise could be seen but upside should be limited well below 0.7295 resistance to bring another decline. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside, break of 0.7054 will turn bias to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7081; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7144; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Fall from 0.7393 is in progress for retesting 0.7020 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, break of 0.7203 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6550; (P) 0.6581; (R1) 0.6610; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.6524 could extend further. But further decline is expected as long as 0.6639 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6524 support will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6378; (P) 0.6532; (R1) 0.6739; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6433 and outlook is unchanged. Another rise could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6717) and above. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6803 to limit upside. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6433 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6623; (P) 0.6645; (R1) 0.6680; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first with focus on 0.6715 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm short term bottoming at 0.6563, just ahead of 0.6546 fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6784). Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.7156 high. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.6546 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6169 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7158). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Sustained break there will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6401; (P) 0.6451; (R1) 0.6486; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues. As long as 0.6510 resistance holds, near term outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 0.6330 will resume the whole decline from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. However, firm break of 0.6510 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7134; (P) 0.7161; (R1) 0.7191; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7209 and sustained trading above 0.7192 should confirm completion of the pull back from 0.7413. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.7413 high. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7401; (P) 0.7433; (R1) 0.7453; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Pull back from 0.7660 short term top is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7349). On the upside, above 0.7518 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7355; (P) 0.7397; (R1) 0.7422; More…

AUD/USD dipped notably today but stays in range of 0.7309/7483. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.7309 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Above 0.7483 will bring stronger rebound. But in that case, upside should below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7372; (P) 0.7396; (R1) 0.7432; More…

AUD/USD recovers after hitting 0.7359 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective pattern from 0.7309 could extend with another rise through 0.7483 resistance. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7312; (P) 0.7353; (R1) 0.7380; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound was limited at 0.7393 and retreated sharply. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For now, as long as 0.7199 support holds, corrective rise from 0.7020 medium term bottom should still extend higher. On the upside, above 0.7393 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446. However, on the downside, break of 0.7199 will suggest that such rebound has completed earlier than expected. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound would be seen to corrective the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7105 extended higher last week. Break of 0.7288 support turned resistance indicates short term bottoming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.7425 resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.7530 support turned resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.7221 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7105 and possibly below. But we’d continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. Subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6355; (P) 0.6374; (R1) 0.6395; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations could be seen above 0.6337 temporary low. But deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6427 resistance holds. Below 0.6337 will resume the fall from 0.6521 and target 0.6269 support next. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.7156, to retest 0.6169 low. Nevertheless, above 0.6427 will bring stronger rebound back to 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7403; (P) 0.7421; (R1) 0.7439; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen first. Further rise is in favor with 0.7322 minor support intact. Above 0.7439 will target 0.7477 resistance first. Firm break there will argue that larger decline from 0.8006 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7541, and then 161.8% projection at 0.7771. On the downside, though, below 0.7322 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7169 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6587; (P) 0.6604; (R1) 0.6620; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.6581 temporary low. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited well below 0.6750 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 0.6581 will resume recent decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2679; (P) 1.2706; (R1) 1.2737; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues below 1.2795. Further rally is mildly in favor with 1.2634 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rally from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2634 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6901; (P) 0.6942; (R1) 0.7010; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Risk stays mildly on the downside as long as 0.7029 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7029 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7559; (P) 0.7586; (R1) 0.7610; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery, and with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Correction from 0.8006 could still extend lower. Below 0.7562 will target 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7620 from 0.7848 at 0.7462. We’ll look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, note that AUD/USD has also completed a head and should top (ls: 0.7819; h: 0.8006; rs: 0.7848). Firm break of 0.7462 will argue that it’s correcting whole up trend from 0.5506. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7848 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6238; (P) 0.6282; (R1) 0.6312; More…

AUD/USD dips today but stays inside range of 0.6169/6362 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.6362 support turned resistance intact. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.