Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7265; (P) 0.7282; (R1) 0.7293; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays inside consolidation from 0.7413. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7135 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. However, on the downside, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (0.7113) and below as correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7325 last week but failed to sustain above 0.7314 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7164 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6895; (P) 0.6916; (R1) 0.6934; More…

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.6864 is still extending and intraday bias remains neutral. Further recovery could be seen but upside should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6270; (P) 0.6305; (R1) 0.6344; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and further decline is expected with 0.6362 support turned resistance intact. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7655; (P) 0.7686; (R1) 0.7708; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 0.7740 resistance. Current development suggests that rise from 0.7158 is likely resuming. Break of 0.7740 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 next. That coincides with key long term retracement level at 0.7849. On the downside, outlook will stay bullish now as long as 0.7490 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8185) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6722; (P) 0.6746; (R1) 0.6793; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside for 0.6680 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6855 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6929 resumed last week and hit as low as 0.6754. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6795 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6912; (P) 0.6948; (R1) 0.6973; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the upside, break of 0.6982, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6965) will pave the way to 0.7282 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound from 0.6680 is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7090; (P) 0.7121; (R1) 0.7158; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 will complete a head and shoulder reversal pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD’s late breach of 0.6362 support indicates down trend resumption. Initial bias is now on the downside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, break of 0.6539 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

In the long term picture, current medium term downside momentum raises the chance of resumption of long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). It’s still a bit early to judge the chance. But break of 0.5506 will target 0.4773 (2001 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7519; (P) 0.7545; (R1) 0.7584; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. Some consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected with 0.7485 minor support intact. Above 0.7578 will extend larger rally to 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7485 would suggest short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7309).

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7756; (P) 0.7800; (R1) 0.7824; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral for consolidation above 0.7758 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.7909 resistance holds. Below 0.7758 will target 0.7500 key support. At this point, there is no clearly sign of larger trend reversal yet. Hence, we’d look for strong support from 0.7500 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.7909 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8135 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6500; (P) 0.6565; (R1) 0.6603; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 0.6457 could have completed at 0.6894 already. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 0.6457 first. Break there will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, above 0.6628 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for now as AUD/USD failed to sustain above both 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) and 55 W EMA (now at 0.6784). On the upside, break of 0.65898 resistance will solidify the case that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has already completed, and target 0.7156 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6457 will likely resume the down trend through 0.6169 (2022 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7112; (P) 0.7156; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7054/7206 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 support should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6449; (P) 0.6484; (R1) 0.6547; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with today’s steep retreat. For now, another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.6411 minor support holds. Sustained break of 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 might be completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should then be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.6700). However, firm break of 0.6411 will indicate rejection by 0.6510, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6269 low.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7503; (P) 0.7524; (R1) 0.7546; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7500 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7652 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 0.7500 will extend the fall from 0.8124 and target 0.7322/8 cluster support next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8029). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7872; (P) 0.7915; (R1) 0.7956; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays below 0.7988 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral as consolidation from there might extend. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, break of 0.7785 will argue that deeper pull back in under way and could target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7640).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6431; (P) 0.6476; (R1) 0.6501; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6457 support confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.7156. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, above 0.6521 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be in progress. Break of 0.6457 will affirm this bearish case. Further break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6696; (P) 0.6726; (R1) 0.6751; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Further decline should be seen to retest 0.6670 low next. On the upside, above 0.6777 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 0.6849 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6759; (P) 0.6769; (R1) 0.6778; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside as fall from 0.6929 is in progress. Deeper decline should be seen to retest 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6803 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But recovery should be limited well below 0.6929 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).