Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7622; (P) 0.7661; (R1) 0.7695; More…

Break of 0.7624 support indicates that larger decline from 0.8124 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. Nonetheless, break of 0.7694 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7896 resistance and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7440; (P) 0.7512; (R1) 0.7549; More…

AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.7452 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Corrective rise from 0.7411 should have completed at 0.7676 and larger decline from 0.8135 is resuming. Break of 0.7411 will confirm and target 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). On the upside, above 0.7528 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7138; (P) 0.7186; (R1) 0.7218; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7135 support now suggests that it’s correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Intraday bias is back on the downside as fall from 0.7413 would target o 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, break of 0.7234 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7413 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7654; (P) 0.7674; (R1) 0.7698; More…

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.7624 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall, near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7896 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Decisive break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124. And, AUD/USD should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 0.6680 has completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.6680 low next. On the upside, above 0.6969 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

AUD/USD rebounded ahead of 0.7531 low last week and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 0.7531 is still in progress and initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 0.7729 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. Break of 0.7531 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. Nonetheless, break of 0.7729 will indicate near term reversal, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound would be seen back to 0.7896 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8033). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7894; (P) 0.7930; (R1) 0.7960; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 0.7988 temporary top. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, break of 0.7785 will argue that deeper pull back in under way and could target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7649).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7092; (P) 0.7143; (R1) 0.7174; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Break of 0.7105 support will confirm resumption of whole decline form 0.8006. Next target should be 0.6991 key structural support. On the upside, break of 0.7208 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has probably reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7349; (P) 0.7371; (R1) 0.7384; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for some more consolidation above 0.7288 temporary low. Further fall is expected as long as 0.7443 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6545; (P) 0.6580; (R1) 0.6636; More…

No change in AUD/USD is in the rebound from 0.5506 and further rise could be seen. We’d still expect upside to be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 0.6402 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 0.6253 support.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6995; (P) 0.7028; (R1) 0.7049; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6988 is in progress. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.7081 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6988 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. However, sustained break of 0.7081 will dampen this bearish case and turn focus back to 0.7205 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.6670 last week but drew support from 0.6677 and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery as consolidation from 0.6677 extends. But upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.6670/7 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5928; (P) 0.6648; (R1) 0.7020; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 next. On the upside, above 0.6362 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6539 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6721; (P) 0.6762; (R1) 0.6799; More…

AUD/USD is losing some downside momentum. But further decline is expected with 0.6873 resistance intact. Current down trend from 0.8006 should target next fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6873 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7511; (P) 0.7542; (R1) 0.7592; More…

AUD/USD continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 0.7448 minor support intact, rebound from 0.7158 could extend higher towards 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from this zone to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7280; (P) 0.7302; (R1) 0.7334; More…

Focus stays on 0.7315 resistance. Firm break there will argue that pull back from 0.7477 has completed at 0.7169. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7820; (P) 0.7877; (R1) 0.7982; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7909 minor resistance argues that fall from 0.8135 has completed at 0.7758 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8135 resistance first. Break will resume medium term up trend for 0.8451 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall towards 0.7500 key support. We’d look for strong support from 0.7500 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6707; (P) 0.6780; (R1) 0.6825; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.6871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445 and possibly below. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169 instead.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6894) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7525; (P) 0.7552; (R1) 0.7586; More…

AUD/USD recovers further today but it’s seen as staying in corrective trading above 0.7500. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7652 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 0.7500 will extend the fall from 0.8124 and target 0.7322/8 cluster support next. Nonetheless, decisive break of 0.7652 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7732 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8029). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6715; (P) 0.6751; (R1) 0.6813; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6677 is still in progress. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.