Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7072; (P) 0.7093; (R1) 0.7128; More…

Further rise is expected in AUD/USD with 0.6948 minor support intact. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7179). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6980; (P) 0.6999; (R1) 0.7019; More…

AUD/USD’s drops to as low as 0.6945 so far as recent decline resumed by breaking 0.6962 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.7018 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7528; (R1) 0.7573; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7539 resistance, and hits as high as 0.7629 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, the strong break of 0.7555 structural resistance should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.8005 high. In any case, near term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7455 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6864 extended higher to 0.7022 last week. The development suggests short term bottoming at 0.6864 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. More importantly, decline form 0.7295 might have completed with three waves down to 0.6864. Initial bias stays on the upside this week first. Break of 0.7069 resistance will target 0.7205 structural resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6962 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6864 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6997; (P) 0.7018; (R1) 0.7046; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the downside at this point, for 0.6868 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.6680 is finished. On the upside, break of 0.7135 will resume the rise from 0.6680 towards 0.7282 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6643; (P) 0.6667; (R1) 0.6698; More…

AUD/USD falls slightly after failing to sustain above 55 4H EMA, but stays above 0.6594 support. Intraday bias remains neutral this point. Further fall is in favor with 0.6719 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could be seen but downside should be contained above 0.6169. This will now remain the favored case as high as 0.6898 resistance holds. Nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6702; (P) 0.6724; (R1) 0.6740; More….

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6662 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is still expected with 0.6774 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low would confirm larger down trend resumption. However, on the upside, break of 0.6774 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7063; (P) 0.7077; (R1) 0.7099; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.7040 low and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Consolidation from 0.7040 might extends with another recovery. By upside should be limited by 0.7159 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. on the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7120; (P) 0.7136; (R1) 0.7155; More…

AUD/USD edges higher to 0.7171 as rebound from 0.6722 short term bottom extends. Upside momentum is diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 0.7026 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Nevertheless, upside should be limited below 0.7393 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7026 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low. Overall, larger down trend from 0.8135 is expected to resume later after consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is now ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6221; (P) 0.6289; (R1) 0.6348; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.6362 support turned resistance intact. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155 will target 138.2% projection at 0.5781. Nevertheless, break of 0.6362 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.6539 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6634; (P) 0.6654; (R1) 0.6678; More…

AUD/USD’s fall resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6563 low. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 0.6563 could have completed with three waves to 0.6817.Decisive break of 0.6563 will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. On the upside, above 0.6708 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6755; (P) 0.6796; (R1) 0.6835; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as rise from 0.6457 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 0.6817 should confirm near term bullish reversal, and pave the way to retest 0.7156 resistance next. On the downside though, below 0.6736 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6817 resistance holds, the decline from 0.7156, as well as the down trend from 0.8006 (2021) are still in favor to continue through 0.6169 (2022 low) at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Such development will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156, and add credence to the case that whole down trend from 0.8006 has completed already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7270; (P) 0.7356; (R1) 0.7399; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.7440 with current retreat. Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first. Some correction could be seen and deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7107; (P) 0.7147; (R1) 0.7217; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 0.7235 resistance. Corrective pull back from there should have completed at 0.7076 and rise from 0.6722 is possibly resuming. On the upside, break of 0.7235 will confirm this bullish case and target 0.7393 resistance next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. For now, in case of retreat, near term outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.7076 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6626; (P) 0.6656; (R1) 0.6701; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6457 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.6817 key structural resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.6578 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6457 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6811) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6531; (P) 0.6565; (R1) 0.6582; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.6689 short term top is in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6489). On the upside, above 0.6596 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk is mildly on the downside as long as 0.6689 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6169 continued last week but failed to break through 0.6539 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6564), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

In the long term picture, current medium term downside momentum raises the chance of resumption of long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). It’s still a bit early to judge the chance. But break of 0.5506 will target 0.4773 (2001 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7495; (P) 0.7550; (R1) 0.7639; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as it recovered quickly after hitting 0.7461. Still, a short term top should be in place at 0.7639, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, hitting 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. Risk stay on the downside for deeper correction. Break of 0.7461 will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7340).

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6408; (P) 0.6461; (R1) 0.6560; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Decisive break of 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508) will argue that whole corrective fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6684) next. On the downside, below 0.6455 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7135; (P) 0.7165; (R1) 0.7199; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6722 is still in progress despite diminishing upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Further rise would be seen. But upside should be limited below 0.7393 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low. Overall, larger down trend from 0.8135 is expected to resume later after consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is now ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).