Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7044; (P) 0.7107; (R1) 0.7158; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.7005 support. Break will resume corrective fall from 0.7413. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, above 0.7128 minor resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6915) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

AUD/USD extended the consolidation pattern from 0.6363 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7265; (P) 0.7289; (R1) 0.7305; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the this point. Correction from 0.8006 could have completed after defending 0.6991. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.6992 to 0.7277 from 0.7128 at 0.7413 first. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7128 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6717; (P) 0.6755; (R1) 0.6789; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6790 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.6929. However, break of 0.6650 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6563 low again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6863; (P) 0.6919; (R1) 0.6968; More…

AUD/USD rebounds notably today but stays below 0.7045 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6731; (P) 0.6752; (R1) 0.6772; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6457 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.6817 structural resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, break of 0.6691 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 is still in favor to continue as long as 0.6817 resistance holds. Prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6801) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Break of 0.6457 will target 0.6169 key support (2022 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Rise from 0.6169 would then be ready to resume through 0.7156.

AUD/USD’s decline argues that corrective recovery from 0.6442 has completed at 0.6594. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.6486, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.6486 will target a retest on 0.6442 first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870. However, on the upside, break of 0.6594 will resume the rebound from 0.6442 and turn bias back to the upside instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD recovered mildly last week as consolidation from 0.6864 extended. But outlook is unchanged and initial bias stays neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6787; (P) 0.6818; (R1) 0.6871; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to complete the whole correction from 0.8006, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7019; (P) 0.7046; (R1) 0.7079; More…

AUD/USD dips to as low as 0.7001 so far but cannot sustain below 0.7020 key support yet. For now, deeper fall is expected as long as 0.7071 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.7020 will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. However, rebound from current level and break of 0.7071 will suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7180).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7661; (P) 0.7725; (R1) 0.7768; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7641 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend form 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, break of 0.7641 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7339; (P) 0.7366; (R1) 0.7387; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside. Current rebound from 0.7020 medium term bottom should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 and above. On the downside, break of 0.7284 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.7199 support holds.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 should have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound should be seen. But still, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7155; (P) 0.7193; (R1) 0.7213; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7128 support dampens our original bullish view and indicates that corrective rebound from 0.6992 has completed at 0.7313. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 support zone. Further break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006, and carries larger bearish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7313 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7216; (P) 0.7231; (R1) 0.7255; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6992 continues today and edges higher to 0.7263. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will argue that fall from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6992, after defending 0.6991 support. Further rally would be seen to 0.7555 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.7205 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7072; (P) 0.7093; (R1) 0.7128; More…

Further rise is expected in AUD/USD with 0.6948 minor support intact. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7179). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6980; (P) 0.6999; (R1) 0.7019; More…

AUD/USD’s drops to as low as 0.6945 so far as recent decline resumed by breaking 0.6962 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration and pave the way to retest 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.7018 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7528; (R1) 0.7573; More…

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7539 resistance, and hits as high as 0.7629 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, the strong break of 0.7555 structural resistance should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.8005 high. In any case, near term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7455 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6864 extended higher to 0.7022 last week. The development suggests short term bottoming at 0.6864 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. More importantly, decline form 0.7295 might have completed with three waves down to 0.6864. Initial bias stays on the upside this week first. Break of 0.7069 resistance will target 0.7205 structural resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6962 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6864 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD edged higher last week as rebound from 0.7105 extended. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7452 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7771. On the downside, however, break of 0.7452 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7386) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6939; (P) 0.6963; (R1) 0.6998; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery lost momentum again ahead of 0.7064 high. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we’d still expect correction from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.