Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6698; (P) 0.6735; (R1) 0.6767; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Pull back from 0.6870 short term top is in progress for 0.6689 resistance turned support, and possibly below. But strong support would be seen from channel support (now at 0.6663) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6780 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6870 instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6382; (P) 0.6419; (R1) 0.6453; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as range trading continues. Outlook stays bearish with 0.6520 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6682; (P) 0.6769; (R1) 0.6822; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Current down trend from 0.8006 should now target next fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6873 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will remains bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7213; (R1) 0.7247; More…

AUD/USD retreated sharply after hitting 0.7275 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Further rise could be seen as long as 0.7109 support holds. Break of 0.7275 will target 0.7311 long term EMA. Nevertheless, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7109 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for correction towards 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6804). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7555 extended to as low as 0.7275 last week. The development suggests that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 has still in progress. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.7275, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.7275 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. However, break of 0.7431 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7071; (P) 0.7123; (R1) 0.7218; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7243 resistance should confirm completion of the consolidation pattern from 0.7413. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.7413 high first. On the downside, through, break of 0.6991 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6927) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7684; (P) 0.7750; (R1) 0.7791; More…

AUD/USD retreated after hitting 0.7815 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.7676 support holds. Above 0.7815 will target 0.7848 resistance first. Break there should confirm that correction from 0.8006 has completed with three waves down to 0.7530. Retest of 0.8006 high should be seen next. However, break of 0.7676 will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8006 with another falling leg, back to 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7025; (P) 0.7046; (R1) 0.7059; More…

Further decline is expected in AUD/USD for 0.7020 support. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7148 resistance holds. However, firm break of 0.7148 will suggest that correction from 0.7020 is extending with another rise. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 0.7393 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6079; (P) 0.6146; (R1) 0.6210; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to limit upside to complete the corrective rise from 0.5506. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6573; (P) 0.6592; (R1) 0.6623; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6480 resumed by breaking through 0.6618 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current development affirms that case pattern from 0.6442 is now in is third leg. Further rise would be seen to 0.6666 and then 100% projection of 0.6442 to 0.6666 from 0.6480 at 0.6704. Nevertheless, break of 0.6548 support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6737; (P) 0.6754; (R1) 0.6766; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.6894 is extending. Decisive break of 0.6677 low will resume larger down trend. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.7082 to 0.667 from 0.6894 at 0.6644 and then 100% projection at 0.6489. On the upside, 0.6776 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7044; (P) 0.7107; (R1) 0.7158; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.7005 support. Break will resume corrective fall from 0.7413. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, above 0.7128 minor resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6915) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

AUD/USD extended the consolidation pattern from 0.6363 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7060; (P) 0.7093; (R1) 0.7143; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7180). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6639; (R1) 0.6672; More…

AUD/USD dips notably today but stays above 0.6570 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of channel resistance (now at 0.6651) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should then be seen to 0.6894 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6570 support will indicate rejection by the channel and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6482) instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD’s rally and break of 0.6817 resistance indicates that corrective decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6457 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 0.7156 high next. On the downside, below 0.6806 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 could have completed in a three wave corrective structure at 0.6457. The development argues that rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7156 will also add to the case that whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has finished and turn medium term outlook bullish. For now this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6688) holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, focus is back on 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119), which is relatively close to 0.7156 resistance. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for resuming the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) at a later stage. However, sustained break there will argue that the trend has reversed, and rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be on track to resume.

AUD/USD recovered after edging lower to 0.6855 last week. But outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Below 0.6855 will target a retest on 0.6680 low. However, break of 0.7135 will invalidate this view and resume the rebound from 0.6680 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7205; (P) 0.7240; (R1) 0.7258; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside, as fall from 0.7555 is in progress for 0.7169 support first. Firm break there will affirm the case that larger decline form 0.8006 is resuming. Next target is 0.7105 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 0.7369 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7032; (P) 0.7059; (R1) 0.7077; More…

AUD/USD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 0.7096 minor resistance intact. Current decline should target 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. Though, above 0.7096 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. Recovery could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.7152). But upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7122; (P) 0.7183; (R1) 0.7220; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7076 support should confirm short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support, for correcting the whole rise form 0.5506. Though, break of 0.7243 resistance will extend the rise to 0.7311 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6790). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.