Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6339; (P) 0.6360; (R1) 0.6386; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery continues today but stays below 0.6444 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6284 will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6444 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7044; (P) 0.7076; (R1) 0.7092; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. Consolidation from 0.7040 might extends with another recovery. By upside should be limited by 0.7159 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7464; (P) 0.7502; (R1) 0.7577; More…

AUD/USD accelerates to as high as 0.7571 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally 0.5506 should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. Sustained break there should confirm long term trend reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7485 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral, and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

AUD/USD turned into consolidation below 0.7635 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.7523 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. Break of 0.7635 will extend the rise from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8096) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

AUD/USD’s rebound lost momentum after hitting 0.7609 and reversed. The development mixed out the near term outlook. And we’ll wait and see which side AUD/USD will break out to.

Initial bias in AUD/USD is neutral this week first. With 0.7562 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is just mildly in favor for0.7472 support. Firm break there will revive the case that whole rise from 0.7158 is completed at 0.7740. In that case, AUD/USD will target a test on 0.7158 key support level next. On the upside, above 0.7562 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7609 resistance. Break will target a test on 0.7748 high.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8144) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7126; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7177; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.7172 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm short term bottoming at 0.6992. More importantly, whole corrective fall from 0.8006 might be finished too after defending 0.6991 key structural support. Stronger rise should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7273). Firm break there will target 0.7555 resistance to confirm this bullish case. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6991 will carry larger bearish implication and extend the down trend from 0.8006.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 0.6991 key support level. Strong rebound from there will argue that up trend from 0.5506 is still intact for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the up trend is over, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7760; (P) 0.7799; (R1) 0.7825; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in range above 0.7712 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7892 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7637; (R1) 0.7669; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with lost of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Another rise cannot be ruled out yet. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we’d expect strong resistance from this resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7510 minor support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for this key near term support level.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treading price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7037; (P) 0.7068; (R1) 0.7095; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged for the moment. Recovery from 0.7003 is seen as a corrective recovery. Upside should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will resume the fall from 0.7295 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, sustained break of 0.7121 resistance will dampen this view and bring stronger rise to 0.7206 and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7235; (P) 0.7251; (R1) 0.7269; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7164 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7600; (P) 0.7624; (R1) 0.7640; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7748 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.7647 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7748 and above. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

AUD/USD dropped further to 0.7201 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside for further rebound. but upside should be limited by 0.7346 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the larger decline from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rebound from 0.682 (2016 low) should have completed at 0.8135 already. Failure to reach 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451 carries bearish implications. This is also supported by the corrective structure from 0.6826 to 0.8135, as well as the rejection by 55 month EMA. The down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7082; (P) 0.7106; (R1) 0.7147; More…

Intraday bias sin AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. On the upside, above 0.7167 will resume the rebound to 0.7313 resistance. Firm break there will be an indication of bullish reversal. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.6991 will extend the down trend from 0.8006. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6870 resumed last week and edged lower to 0.6501. Initial bias is now on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407. On the upside, break of 0.6621 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6492; (P) 0.6508; (R1) 0.6534; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral again with current recovery. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6538 minor resistance holds. Below 0.6480 will target 0.6442 support. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870 and target 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6666 at 0.6401. Nevertheless, break of 0.6538 will delay the bearish case, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7124; (P) 0.7135; (R1) 0.7152; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7116 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7235 already. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7235 at 0.7039 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 0.6918 and below. On the upside, however, break of 0.7166 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside and will likely extend the rebound from 0.6722.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6474; (P) 0.6502; (R1) 0.6526; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6440 minor support will indicate rejection by 55 D EMA and retain near term bearishness. Retest of 0.6361 low should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly to 0.6804 last week but failed to sustained above 0.6792 resistance and dropped sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7145) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6705; (P) 0.6753; (R1) 0.6836; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed by breaking through 0.6796 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 0.6871 fibonacci level first. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.6271 to 0.6796 from 0.6641 at 0.6965. For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6641 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it’s too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6927) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7612; (P) 0.7634; (R1) 0.7653; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 0.8006 could extend lower. Break of 0.7562 will target 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7620 from 0.7848 at 0.7462. We’ll look for strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7848 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the correction. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.