Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5732; (P) 0.5788; (R1) 0.5877; More…

ADU?USD is staying in consolidation from 0.5506 and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.6020). But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5506 will target 261.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5118.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7695; (P) 0.7711; (R1) 0.7727; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.7774 resistance will suggest that pull back from 0.7890 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7664 will resume the fall from 0.7890 to 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7309; (P) 0.7339; (R1) 0.7389; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7440 is still in progress. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But overall, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6849; (P) 0.6920; (R1) 0.6974; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.6854 support despite yesterday’s dip. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6736, which is close to 0.6721 key structural support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7028 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6442 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.6666. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.6877 to 0.6442 at 0.6707 next. Sustained trading above there will argue rise from 0.6442 is probably resuming whole rally from 0.6269. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.6707, followed by sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6553) will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6442 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7158; (P) 0.7217; (R1) 0.7251; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with break of 0.7205 minor support. On the upside, break of 0.7277, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will argue that fall from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6992, after defending 0.6991 support. Further rally would be seen to 0.7555 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.7081 support will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6991/2 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7393; (P) 0.7419; (R1) 0.7466; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside as recovery from 0.7345 might extend higher. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6664; (P) 0.6742; (R1) 0.6787; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6894 resumed by breaking through 0.6714 and intraday bias is back on the downside. As this decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6898, downside should be contained by 0.6594 support. On the upside, break of 0.6820 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6894/8 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6720) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6810; (P) 0.6849; (R1) 0.6905; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.6762/6918 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to complete the whole correction from 0.8006, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7306; (P) 0.7374; (R1) 0.7425; More…

AUD/USD failed to break 0.7309 low and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook remain bearish though and downside breakout is expected sooner or later. Decisive break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7050; (P) 0.7086; (R1) 0.7141; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.6169 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7168 next. Break there will target 0.7304 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.7061 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6871 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7084; (P) 0.7109; (R1) 0.7134; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and resume larger down trend from 0.8006. On the upside, above 0.7223 and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7239) will be the first sign of major bottoming and bring stronger rise to 0.7555 resistance.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly last week but was still bounded in range of 0.6563/6804. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook also stays bearish as long as 0.6804 resistance holds, and down trend resumption through 0.6563 low is in favor at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 should indicate completion of whole fall from 0.7156, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7128) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7083; (P) 0.7117; (R1) 0.7157; More…

AUD/USD is holding in range of 0.7063/7227 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Daily and 4 hour MACDs suggest that a short term top could have been formed. On the downside, break of 0.7063 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6776, for correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Nevertheless, above 0.7227 will extend the rally towards 0.7311 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6789). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7005; (P) 0.7041; (R1) 0.7067; More…

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.7016 but couldn’t sustain below 0.7020 key support yet. At this point, further fall is expected as long as 0.7077 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.7020 will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. However, rebound from current level and break of 0.7077 will suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7191).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6608; (P) 0.6623; (R1) 0.6642; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Above 0.6645 will target 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7721; (P) 0.7746; (R1) 0.7780; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook and further rise is in favor with 0.7681 minor support intact. Firm break of 0.7819 resistance will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7681 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8022; (P) 0.8073; (R1) 0.8104; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.8124 with today’s retreat in AUD/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. As long as 0.7807 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish for further rally. Above 0.8124 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7600; (P) 0.7637; (R1) 0.7661; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 0.7411 is seen as a correction. Hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. On the downside, below 0.7593 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7475 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall through 0.7411 to 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). However, sustained break of 0.7688 will dampen our bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.7585 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7111; (P) 0.7139; (R1) 0.7169; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 0.6966 should target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that 0.6991 key support was defended and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, below 0.7075 minor support will bring retest of 0.6966. Sustained break of 0.6991 will resume the larger fall from 0.8006 and carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.