Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7902; (P) 0.7934; (R1) 0.7977; More…

As noted before, the pull back from 0.8135 has completed at 0.7758 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside for retesting 0.8135 first. Decisive break there will resume medium term up trend for 0.8451 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall towards 0.7500 key support. We’d look for strong support from 0.7500 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6713; (P) 0.6755; (R1) 0.6825; More…

Immediate focus is now on 0.6792 resistance in AUD/USD. Decisive break there will resume the whole rebound from 0.6563 and target 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.6792 will maintain near term bearishness for another fall through 0.6563, to resume whole decline from 0.7156.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6608; (P) 0.6623; (R1) 0.6642; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Above 0.6645 will target 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7201; (P) 0.7237; (R1) 0.7257; More…

AUD/USD drops sharply today but stays above 0.7081. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7081 support will indicate that corrective rebound from 0.6992 has completed with three waves up to 0.7277, after hitting 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 support zone. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006. ON the upside, through, break of 0.7277 will turn bias to the upside to resume the rebound.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7309; (P) 0.7326; (R1) 0.7358; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7201 short term bottom extends to as high as 0.7358 so far today. 0.7346 support turned resistance is broken without sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7452 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.7295 minor support will argue that the rebound is finished and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a correction should be seen first, with stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7201 at 0.7558. The down trend from 0.8135 will resume after the correction completes.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7045 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7203; (R1) 0.7227; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 0.6722. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for retesting this low. On the upside, above 0.7235 will extend the rebound. But upside should be limited by 0.7393 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7872; (P) 0.7915; (R1) 0.7956; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays below 0.7988 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral as consolidation from there might extend. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, break of 0.7785 will argue that deeper pull back in under way and could target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7640).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7760; (P) 0.7799; (R1) 0.7825; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in range above 0.7712 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7892 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6735; (P) 0.6770; (R1) 0.6791; More…

A temporary low is formed at 0.6748 in AUD/USD with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6899 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside break of 0.6748 will target 0.6722 low first. Break will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish. . The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume target 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7295 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6796 last week but retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.6796 will resume the rise from 0.6169 to 0.6871 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it’s too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7563; (P) 0.7598; (R1) 0.7620; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7635 minor resistance intact, outlook is unchanged. That is, rebound from 0.7158 is finished at 0.7740. Below 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7565; (P) 0.7594; (R1) 0.7612; More….

AUD/USD is still bounded in range below 0.7635 and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7635 will extend the rise from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6566; (P) 0.6625; (R1) 0.6664; More…

AUD/USD is holding above 0.6521 resistance turned support even as retreat from 0.6796 extends. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 0.6796 will resume the rise from 0.6169 to 0.6871 fibonacci level. However, sustained break of 0.6521 will argue that whole rebound from 0.6169 is over, and bring deeper fall to retest this low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it’s too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6923) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6256; (P) 0.6350; (R1) 0.6415; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that rebound from 0.5506 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7066; (P) 0.7082; (R1) 0.7102; More…

AUD/USD rises strongly today and focus is now on 0.7121 minor resistance. Firm break there will argue that decline from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003. In that case, further rise should be seen to 0.7206 resistance to confirm. More importantly, in that case, corrective three wave structure of the fall fro 0.7296 to 0.7003 would suggest that rise from 0.6722 low is extending through 0.7295. On the downside, though, break of 0.7003 will extend the fall from 0.7295 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7282 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7034 minor support will argue that rebound form 0.6828 has completed. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for retesting 0.6828 low. On the upside, above 0.7282 will resume the rise from 0.6828 towards 0.7660 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6987; (P) 0.7008; (R1) 0.7022; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.6984 so far today. Breach of 0.6988 temporary low suggests resumption of fall from 0.7295. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. On the upside, break of 0.7069 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7137; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7175; More…

Intraday bias in AUD?USD remains neutral as consolidation fro 0.7235 might extends. For now, as long as 0.7076 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 0.7235 will extend the rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 resistance next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6680 resumed last week. While upside momentum is diminishing slightly, further rally is still expected this week to 100% projection of 0.6680 to 0.7045 from 0.6868 at 0.7233. However, break of 0.7008 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6868 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.