Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6925; (P) 0.6942; (R1) 0.6958; More…

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7031 accelerates to as low as 0.6863 so far. Current development argues that corrective rise from 0.6670 has completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Break of 0.6838 will affirm this bearish case and target 0.6754 structural support for confirmation. On the upside, above 0.6930 minor resistance will dampen this case and turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.7031 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7506).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6617; (P) 0.6661; (R1) 0.6687; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside for now despite today’s recovery. Consolidation pattern from 0.6563 could have completed with three waves to 0.6817. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.6563 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. On the upside, above 0.6705 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6457 extended higher last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.6817 resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, break of 0.6640 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6457 low again.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 is still in favor to continue as long as 0.6817 resistance holds. Prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6801) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Break of 0.6457 will target 0.6169 key support (2022 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Rise from 0.6169 would then be ready to resume through 0.7156.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation pattern from 0.6563 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7145) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

AUD/USD’s rebound form 0.6680 short term bottom extended higher last week. As a temporary top was formed at 0.7030, initial bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7030 will resume the rebound to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound from 0.6910 is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6637; (P) 0.6703; (R1) 0.6742; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.6898 would target 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625. Sustained break there would bring deeper decline back to 0.6457 support. On the upside, above 0.6740 will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 for now. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) raises the chance that it’s in progress. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall form 0.7156. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

AUD/USD stayed in sideway trading in range of 0.6563 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6546 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, however, break of 0.6758 resistance will now be a strong signal of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7161) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2028; (P) 1.2053; (R1) 1.2099; More…

USD/CAD recovered after brief dip to 1.2005 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Again, we’d stay cautious on strong support from 1.2048/61 to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2201 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound. On the downside, break of 1.2005, and sustained break of 1.2048/61 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). We’d look for strong support from 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048 to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2363 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6566; (P) 0.6602; (R1) 0.6643; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.6457 would target 55 D EMA (now at 0.6659). Sustained break there will target 0.6817 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Below 0.6566 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6457 low.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6811) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6971; (P) 0.6986; (R1) 0.7009; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. We’re still viewing the rebound from 0.6831 as a correction. And, upside should be limited by 0.7022 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6941 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6831 low. However, firm break of 0.7022 will indicate near term bullish reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.7205 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7181; (P) 0.7202; (R1) 0.7241; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7314 will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, break of 0.7164 will suggest that rebound from 0.7020 has completed and maintain medium term bearishness. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6380; (P) 0.6404; (R1) 0.6430; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside despite loss of downside momentum. Current fall should target 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, above 0.6479 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7063; (P) 0.7095; (R1) 0.7113; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7088 minor support should indicate completion of corrective rise from 0.7040 at 0.7159. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7040 low first. Break there will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885. On the upside, in case of another recovery, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7159 to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7075; (P) 0.7104; (R1) 0.7135; More…

AUD/USD dropped notably after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. But downside is held above 0.7054 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Some more consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited well below 0.7295 resistance to bring another decline. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside, break of 0.7054 will turn bias to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7761; (P) 0.7772; (R1) 0.7792; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7725/7809 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is mildly in favor with 0.7725 minor support intact. Above 0.7809 will target 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. However, below 0.7725 will bring retest of 0.7642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6545; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6593; More….

AUD/USD’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 0.6516 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current down trend should target 100% projection of 0.6933 to 0.6662 from 0.6750 at 0.6479. Break will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 0.6479. On the upside, above 0.6592 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5732; (P) 0.5788; (R1) 0.5877; More…

ADU?USD is staying in consolidation from 0.5506 and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.6020). But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5506 will target 261.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.5118.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7695; (P) 0.7711; (R1) 0.7727; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.7774 resistance will suggest that pull back from 0.7890 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7664 will resume the fall from 0.7890 to 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7309; (P) 0.7339; (R1) 0.7389; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7440 is still in progress. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But overall, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6849; (P) 0.6920; (R1) 0.6974; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.6854 support despite yesterday’s dip. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6736, which is close to 0.6721 key structural support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7028 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.