Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7662; (P) 0.7691; (R1) 0.7729; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, below 0.7639 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 0.7461 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6517; (P) 0.6541; (R1) 0.6581; More…

AUD/USD rises further to 0.6585 so far as rally from 0.6269 continues today. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Current development argues that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should be seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next. On the downside, below 0.6533 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.6451 support holds.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7413 high last week suggests resumption of whole rise form 0.5506. Further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7351 support holds. Next target is 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there should confirm reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Though, rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness for another low through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7546; (P) 0.7564; (R1) 0.7598; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7531 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7642 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 0.7531 will resume larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7642 will be an early sign of near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.7812 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6722 short term bottom extended higher last week. And despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside for further rally. But upside should be limited by 0.7393 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6843; (P) 0.6871; (R1) 0.6919; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6823 minor support argues that rebound from 0.6698 has completed. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, further break of 0.6680 low will resume larger down trend. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.6915) will target 0.7135 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7260; (P) 0.7277; (R1) 0.7304; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.7219 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 0.7219 will resume the fall from 0.7477 to retest 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7045; (P) 0.7097; (R1) 0.7146; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7029 temporary low is extending. Further decline is still expected as long as 0.7228 minor resistance holds. As noted before, fall from 0.7660 is seen as the third leg of the larger correction from 0.8006. Below 0.7029 will target 0.6966 low first. Firm break there will confirm this bearish case and target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7228 should indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

AUD/USD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 0.6680 low decisively, and hit as low as 0.6510. Initial bias is on the downside this week. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6669 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.5506.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still is not clearly impulsive. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6898; (P) 0.6918; (R1) 0.6934; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 0.6864 support. Break there will resume the decline from 0.7295 for retesting 0.6722 low. On the upside, above 0.6938 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7135; (P) 0.7177; (R1) 0.7203; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.7095 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7243 will extend the rebound from 0.7005 to retest 0.7413 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rise form 0.5506 to 0.7635 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.7095 will argue that corrective fall from 0.7413 is resuming through 0.7005.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6898) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7631; (P) 0.7660; (R1) 0.7702; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7510 support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. However, lost of upside momentum is seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. We’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7510 minor support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for this key near term support level.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6269 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6398 resistance holds. Break of 0.6269 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7512; (P) 0.7538; (R1) 0.7582; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7477. On the downside, break of 0.7477 will extend the correction from 0.8006 to 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7644 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6298; (P) 0.6327; (R1) 0.6359; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Also, outlook remains bearish with 0.6444 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6284 will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6444 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6537; (P) 0.6562; (R1) 0.6612; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound suggests that fall from 0.6666 has completed at 0.6503 already. But upside is kept below this resistance for now and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 0.6666 will resume the rise from 0.6442 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6870 to 0.64420 at 0.6707. On the downside, break of 0.6503 will argue that fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume through 0.6442 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7031 last week be reversed from there. The breach of 0.6938 resistance turned support suggests short term topping. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.6838 support first. Break will target 0.6754 near term structural support next. On the upside, though , break of 0.7031 will resume the corrective rebound from 0.6670 to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7506).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7907; (P) 0.7947; (R1) 0.7998; More…

AUD/USD’s retreat suggests that a temporary top is formed at 0.7988 after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection at 0.8335 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7097; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7131; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. As long as 0.7210 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. Current down trend from 0.8135 should extend to 161.8% projection of 0.7452 to 0.7201 from 0.7361 at 0.6955. Break will target key support level at 0.6826. On the upside, break of 0.7210 will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7349; (P) 0.7391; (R1) 0.7420; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside as fall from 0.7555 resumes. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7393) will argue that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555. That would also argue that fall from 0.8006 is ready to resume through 0.7105 low. On the upside, above 0.7431 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7555 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.