Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6858; (P) 0.6921; (R1) 0.6984; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.6983 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 0.6569 resistance turned support holds, further rally will remain mildly in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7031 will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 0.6569 will suggest near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 0.6402 support and below.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7365). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6710).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7405; (P) 0.7449; (R1) 0.7499; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 0.7398 will resume the fall from 0.7660. On the upside, above 0.7518 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7358; (P) 0.7384; (R1) 0.7433; More…

AUD/USD faced some resistance from 4 hour 55 EMA and retreats. But it’s staying in range of 0.7322/7443 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, as long as 0.7443 resistance holds, further decline is expected. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.7676 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7156 continued last week and accelerated to as low as 1.6716. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Immediate focus is on 0.6721 support this week. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. Next target is 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. On the upside, break of 0.6854 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6499; (P) 0.6517; (R1) 0.6528; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with break of 0.6486 temporary low. Retest of 0.6442 support should be seen next. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870 for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6594 at 0.6329. On the upside, above 0.6534 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6594 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7292; (P) 0.7329; (R1) 0.7403; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rally should now target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 0.7135 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7376; (P) 0.7396; (R1) 0.7422; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7309 is extending. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7088; (P) 0.7113; (R1) 0.7156; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7005 is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7192 support turned resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the fall from 0.7413, which is a correction to rise from 0.5506, to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. However, sustained break of 0.7192 will indicate completed of the pull back and turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.7413.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise form 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6395; (P) 0.6454; (R1) 0.6494; More…

AUD/USD’s down trend continues today and hits as low as 0.6379 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6512 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. With 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461 firmly taken out, next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7666; (P) 0.7690; (R1) 0.7729; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7703 resistance suggests that correction from 0.7819 has completed at 0.7563. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.7819. Break will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction form 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6804; (P) 0.6837; (R1) 0.6861; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6807 suggests that corrective rise from 0.6677 has completed with three waves to 0.6894. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6677 first. Break will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will stays on the downside as long as 0.6894 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7282 extended lower last week but recovered ahead of 0.6828 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.6828 support will resume larger fall from 0.8006. Next target is 0.6756/60 cluster support. However, firm break of 0.7282 will be a sign of bullish reversal and bring stronger rebound to 0.7666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6300; (P) 0.6353; (R1) 0.6423; More…

AUD/USD continues to stay in range below 0.6444 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.6213 resistance turned support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 0.6444 will turn bias to the upside to resume whole rebound from 0.5506, towards 0.6685 key resistance. However, on the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5923; (P) 0.6005; (R1) 0.6140; More…

AUD/USD’s corrective rise from 0.5506 is still in progress and further rebound cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6870 resumed last week and edged lower to 0.6501. Initial bias is now on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407. On the upside, break of 0.6621 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7114; (P) 0.7178; (R1) 0.7214; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7105 so far today and met 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 already. There is no sign of bottoming yet and further fall is expected. But we’d look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound. On the upside break of 0.7288 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6461; (P) 0.6491; (R1) 0.6513; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6468 will resume the fall from 0.6870, as part of the down trend from 0.7156, to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7151; (P) 0.7173; (R1) 0.7204; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the upside as rebound from 0.6966 resumed by breaking through 0.7167. Further rise would be seen back to 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6778; (P) 0.6822; (R1) 0.6848; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7156 resumed by breaking 0.6810 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper decline would be seen to 100% projection of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6736, which is close to 0.6721 key structural support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. But for now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6919 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7256; (P) 0.7297; (R1) 0.7329; More….

AUD/USD is still bounded in range below 0.7339 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is in favor with 0.7221 support intact. Consolidation pattern from 0.7413 should have completed with three waves to 0.6991. Above 0.7339 will target a test on 0.7413 first. On the downside, break of 0.7221 minor support would likely extend the consolidation pattern from 0.7413 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6964) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.