Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7011; (P) 0.7044; (R1) 0.7101; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7089 resistance suggests that it has tentatively defended 0.6991 key medium term support. Intraday bias is back on the upside for stronger rebound towards 0.7313 resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6991 will resume the larger fall from 0.8006 and carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial dip to 0.6457 last week. Initial bias is now mildly on the upside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6659). Sustained break there will target 0.6817 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Firm break of 0.6457 will resume the fall from 0.7156.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6811) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6779; (P) 0.6802; (R1) 0.6843; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound and break of 0.6834 resistance suggests that pull back from 0.6929 has completed at 0.6754, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for retesting 0.6929 resistance first. Break there will resume the rebound from 0.6670 and target 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013. On the downside, break of 0.6754 will resume the fall form 0.6929 to retest 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7561; (P) 0.7612; (R1) 0.7659; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside as correction form 0.7819 is in progress. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.6991 to 0.7819 at 0.7503. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7703 minor resistance will argue that the correction has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.7819 high.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7081; (P) 0.7131; (R1) 0.7166; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7313 resumes after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 support zone. Further break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006, and carries larger bearish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. On the upside, break of 0.7180 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7156 resumed by breaking through 0.6563 support last week. A temporary low was formed after falling to 0.6489. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.6604 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Break of 0.6489 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.6224.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7161; (P) 0.7195; (R1) 0.7219; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7323; (P) 0.7347; (R1) 0.7371; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.7275 temporary low is extending. But further decline is in favor as long as 0.7431 minor resistance holds. Rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is still in progress. On the downside, below 0.7275 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. However, break of 0.7431 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7221; (P) 0.7254; (R1) 0.7317; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7413 is extending. With 0.7135 support intact, rise from 0.5506 is still in favor to resume sooner, rather than later, through 0.7413. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6344; (P) 0.6387; (R1) 0.6409; More…

AUD/USD’s steep decline now suggests that rebound from 0.6269 has completed at 0.6521. The development also indicates rejection by 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508), and retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6269 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.7156, to retest 0.6169 low. On the upside, above 0.6427 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6989; (P) 0.7012; (R1) 0.7029; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp fall and break of 0.6996 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.6831 has completed with three waves up to 0.7082. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.6910 support first. Break will confirm and pave the way back to retest 0.6831 support next. Such development will also argue that fall from 0.7295 is in progress for 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.7082 will extend the rebound from 0.6831 instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6660; (P) 0.6677; (R1) 0.6704; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6740 but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6740 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 0.6169. Meanwhile, nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7211; (P) 0.7251; (R1) 0.7275; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is probably ready to resume. Further fall should be seen to 0.7169 support first. Break will target 0.7105 and below. On the upside, break of 0.7369 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6827; (P) 0.6857; (R1) 0.6880; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6898 continues. Downside of retreat should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6730 to bring another rally. As noted before, whole corrective decline from 0.7156 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6457 already. Above 0.6898 will resume the rise from 0.6457 to retest 0.7156 high next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 could have completed in a three wave corrective structure at 0.6457. The development argues that rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7156 will also add to the case that whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has finished and turn medium term outlook bullish. For now this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6694) holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6775; (P) 0.6804; (R1) 0.6855; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside as rebound from 0.6677 is extending. But outlook is unchanged that such rebound is seen as a corrective move. Hence, upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6723 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7022; (P) 0.7047; (R1) 0.7074; More…

AUD/USD’s decline lost momentum ahead of 0.7005 support and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 0.7114 resistance holds. Break of 0.7005 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7413 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. However, break of 0.7114 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7243 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6916) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6866; (P) 0.6975; (R1) 0.7030; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside at this point. Pull back from 0.7156 short term top would target 55 day EMA (now at 0.6863) and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6994 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But overall, corrective pattern from 0.7156 should extend for a while.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6894 extended lower last week and hit as low as 0.6621. Deeper fall is in favor this week, but strong support should be seen from 0.6594 to complete to corrective pattern from 0.6898. On the upside, break of 0.6714 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6894/8 resistance zone. However, sustained break of 0.6594 will dampen this will and bring deeper fall towards 0.6457.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for now as AUD/USD failed to sustain above both 55 D EMA (now at 0.6720) and 55 W EMA (now at 0.6784). On the upside, break of 0.65898 resistance will solidify the case that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has already completed, and target 0.7156 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6457 will likely resume the down trend through 0.6169 (2022 low).

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7085) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7130; (P) 0.7173; (R1) 0.7199; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Rebound form 0.7084 short term bottom could extend. But it’s seen as a correction and upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7132; (P) 0.7177; (R1) 0.7209; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.7081 support will indicate that corrective rebound from 0.6992 has completed with three waves up to 0.7277, after hitting 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 support zone. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006. On the upside, though, break of 0.7277 will turn bias to the upside to resume the rebound.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.