Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6751; (P) 0.6777; (R1) 0.6830; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 0.6269 should target 0.6894 resistance first. Sustained break there will target 0.7156 next. On the downside, below 0.6723 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6541 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6680 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is expected in AUD/USD with 0.6873 resistance intact. Break of 0.6680 will target next fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6873 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7126; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7177; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.7172 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm short term bottoming at 0.6992. More importantly, whole corrective fall from 0.8006 might be finished too after defending 0.6991 key structural support. Stronger rise should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7273). Firm break there will target 0.7555 resistance to confirm this bullish case. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6991 will carry larger bearish implication and extend the down trend from 0.8006.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 0.6991 key support level. Strong rebound from there will argue that up trend from 0.5506 is still intact for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the up trend is over, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7393; (P) 0.7419; (R1) 0.7466; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside as recovery from 0.7345 might extend higher. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7479; (P) 0.7509; (R1) 0.7555; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound form 0.7439 extends higher today. But it’s limited below 0.7609 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we’re favoring the case that rise from 0.7158 has completed at 0.7748 already. And deeper decline is expected. Break of 0.7439 will turn bias to the downside and target a test on 0.7144/7158 support zone. At this point, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence we’ll be cautious on strong support from0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7609 will argue that the fall from 0.7748 has completed. In such case, bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7748 resistance.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8118) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6619; (R1) 0.6641; More...

While AUD/USD’s retreat from 0.6713 extends lower, it’s staying above 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

AUD/USD engaged in sideway trading below 0.7962 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As noted before, correction from 0.8065 might extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. Above 0.7962 will target a test on 0.8065 resistance first. Firm break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

AUD/USD retreated ahead of 0.6530 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6564), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6499; (P) 0.6517; (R1) 0.6528; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment, and further decline is expected with 0.6594 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.6486 will target a retest on 0.6442 first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870 for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6594 at 0.6329 next. However, on the upside, break of 0.6594 will resume the rebound from 0.6442 and turn bias back to the upside instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6800; (P) 0.6829; (R1) 0.6847; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.6810 resistance turned support. Firm break should indicate completion of corrective rebound from 0.6677. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 0.6723 support first. Break will target 0.6670 low. On the upside in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7546; (P) 0.7574; (R1) 0.7593; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 0.7476 will resume the corrective pattern from 0.8006 towards 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7644 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6946; (P) 0.6970; (R1) 0.6987; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7678; (P) 0.7699; (R1) 0.7737; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7642 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 0.7784 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.7642 to will turn bias to the downside to extend recent fall from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7800; (P) 0.7819; (R1) 0.7853; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment, with focus on 0.7807 key near term support. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 support will indicate near term reversal. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7674) first. Meanwhile, rebound from 0.7807 will retain bullishness. Above 0.7907 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. In case of further rally, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7807 is the first signal that such correction is focused. Break of 0.7328 will bring retest of 0.6826 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6988; (P) 0.7002; (R1) 0.7032; More…

AUD/USD accelerates to as high as 0.7101 so far today. Break of 0.7064 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise form 0.5506. Intraday bias is now on the upside for near term target of 61.8% projection of 0.6402 to 0.7064 from 0.6776 at 0.7185. On the downside, break of 0.6963 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6413; (P) 0.6443; (R1) 0.6462; More…

Outlook in AUD/USD is unchanged as corrective rise from 0.6356 might extend higher. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. Break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7182; (P) 0.7214; (R1) 0.7233; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.7158 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidations would be seen. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.7310 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the whole corrective pattern from 0.6826 bottom should have finished. Break of 0.7144 support will likely extend the larger down trend through 0.6826.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7098; (P) 0.7119; (R1) 0.7137; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7040 is in progress. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should bel limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6664; (P) 0.6700; (R1) 0.6722; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.6639 will resume the fall from 0.6870 short term top to 0.6541 support next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6759 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed already. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.6870 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7146; (P) 0.7169; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD’s strong break of 0.7095 suggests that recovery from 0.7005 has completed at 0.7243. Correction fall form 0.7413 should be ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7005 first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, above 0.7128 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6915) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.