Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7065; (P) 0.7084; (R1) 0.7115; More…

AUD/USD’s strong recovery and break of 0.7107 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 0.7054. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Stronger rise might be seen, but upside should be limited by 0.7295 resistance to bring another fall. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside, break of 0.7054 will turn bias to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6531; (P) 0.6565; (R1) 0.6582; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.6689 short term top is in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6489). On the upside, above 0.6596 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk is mildly on the downside as long as 0.6689 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6972; (P) 0.6997; (R1) 0.7014; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7031 will resume the rebound from 0.6670 and target 0.7082 key resistance next. However, break of 0.6938 will be the first sign of near term reversal. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6838 support next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7506).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7655; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7708; More…

AUD/USD recovers ahead of 0.7624 support as consolidation continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.7896 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Decisive break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124. And, AUD/USD should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7979; (P) 0.8007; (R1) 0.8028; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as correction from 0.8124 is still in progress. Deeper fall could be seen. But still, with 0.7807 support intact, near term outlook stays bearish and another rise is expected. Break of 0.8124 will turn bias to the upside and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7328 key support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6696; (P) 0.6726; (R1) 0.6751; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Further decline should be seen to retest 0.6670 low next. On the upside, above 0.6777 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 0.6849 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7265; (P) 0.7282; (R1) 0.7293; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays inside consolidation from 0.7413. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7135 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. However, on the downside, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (0.7113) and below as correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6502; (P) 0.6517; (R1) 0.6530; More….

AUD/USD recovered after dipping to 0.6484 and intraday bias is neutral at this point. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6484 support will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7755; (P) 0.7794; (R1) 0.7864; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and edges higher to 0.7838. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Firm break of 0.7833 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 0.6826 bottom. In such case, AUD/USD would target 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950 next. On the downside, below 0.7801 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.7570 support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6787; (P) 0.6817; (R1) 0.6846; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6898 resistance will firstly confirm resumption of rise from 0.6457. Secondly, that should also confirm completion of the fall from 0.7156 at 0.6457. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6457 to 0.6898 from 0.6594 at 0.7035, and then 0.7156 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6703) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7639; (P) 0.7685; (R1) 0.7715; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7633 so far today. Break of 0.7642 confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7500 key support level next. Break there will indicate medium term reversal. On the upside, above 0.7682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 accelerated to as low as 0.6513 last week but recovered after breaching 61.8% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6528 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6631) holds. Sustained break oft 0.6528 will pave the way back to 0.6361 support next.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6798 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7584; (P) 0.7623; (R1) 0.7657; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Rebound form 0.7530 is in favor to continue as long as 0.7587 minor support holds. Break of 0.767 will target 0.7848 resistance. Firm break there should confirm completion of the corrective fall from 0.8006. However, break of 0.7587 will likely resume the correction from 0.8006 through 0.7530.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7775 extends higher. Further rise would be seen to 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886). On the downside, break of 0.7694 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8034). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6455; (P) 0.6473; (R1) 0.6504; More…

AUD/USD’s strong break of 0.6480 support turned resistance confirms short term bottoming at 0.6361, and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6440 minor support will indicate rejection by 55 D EMA and retain near term bearishness. Retest of 0.6361 low should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7427; (P) 0.7460; (R1) 0.7493; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Pull back from 0.7660 short term top is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7346). On the upside, above 0.7518 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6731; (P) 0.6763; (R1) 0.6782; More…

AUD/USD weakens after failing to break 4 hour 55 EMA. But it’s staying above 0.6677 short term bottom. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. In case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation below 0.7235 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.7116 minor support holds, further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7235 will target 0.7393 resistance. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 0.6722. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6978; (P) 0.7003; (R1) 0.7045; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7042 but failed to sustain above 0.7031 resistance and retreat. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6856 support should indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6569 resistance turned support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.7031 will extend the rise from 0.5506.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7326). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6517; (P) 0.6541; (R1) 0.6581; More…

AUD/USD rises further to 0.6585 so far as rally from 0.6269 continues today. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Current development argues that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should be seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next. On the downside, below 0.6533 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.6451 support holds.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.