Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7464; (P) 0.7502; (R1) 0.7577; More…

AUD/USD accelerates to as high as 0.7571 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally 0.5506 should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. Sustained break there should confirm long term trend reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7485 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral, and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7281; (P) 0.7310; (R1) 0.7332; More….

AUD/USD failed to break through 0.7339 temporary top and retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is still in favor with 0.7221 support intact. Consolidation pattern from 0.7413 could have completed with three waves to 0.6991. On the upside, break of 0.7339 will target at test on 0.7413 high first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 0.5506. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 0.7221 minor support would likely extend the consolidation pattern from 0.7413 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6969) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6423; (P) 0.6439; (R1) 0.6465; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6361 continues today but stays below 0.6480 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside is still expected to be limited by 0.6480 support turned resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.6361 will resume the fall from 0.6870 to 100% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6215. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6480 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7019; (P) 0.7046; (R1) 0.7079; More…

AUD/USD’s decline accelerates to as low as 0.6982 so far today. The development should confirm resumption of whole down trend from 0.8135. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.6826 key support next. On the upside, break of 0.7071 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6468 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6468 will resume the decline from 0.6870 to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6734; (P) 0.6750; (R1) 0.6776; More…

AUD/USD recovers strongly ahead of 0.6710 minor support but stays below 0.6810 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 0.6670 are seen as a corrective above. Above 0.6810 will extend the rebound but upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6710 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7094; (P) 0.7112; (R1) 0.7138; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound indicates short term bottoming at 0.7084, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for further rebound. But for now, we’d still expect upside to be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD rebounded to as high as 0.7168 last week but failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. On the upside above 0.7168 will resume the rebound from 0.7003 towards 0.7295 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s sharp decline and break of 0.6910 support last week suggests that rebound from 0.6831 has completed at 0.7082 already. The three wave corrective structure suggests that larger decline from 0.7295 is in progress and is possibly resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.6831 support first. Break will confirm and target 0.6722 low next. On the upside, break of 0.6955 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7575; (P) 0.7598; (R1) 0.7625; More…

AUD/USD’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 0.7564 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7500 key support level next. Decisive break there will indicate medium term reversal and target 0.7328 support next. On the upside, above 0.7620 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

AUD/USD’s strong rally last week confirmed short term bottoming at 0.6269. Initial bias stays on the upside this week with focus on 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508). Sustained break of 0.6510 will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 might be completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should then be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.6708). Meanwhile, rejection by 0.6510 will retain near term bearishness.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7057; (P) 0.7078; (R1) 0.7101; More…

AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.7022 so far today. The break of 0.7040 low confirms resumption of the down trend from 0.8135. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990. Break there will target 100% projection at 0.6885. On the upside, break of 0.7099 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stays bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD turned into sideway trading above 0.6639 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further decline is expected as long as 0.6759 minor resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6639 will resume the fall from 0.6870 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6870 at 0.6497 next. On the upside, break of 0.6759 will bring retest of 0.6870 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7163; (P) 0.7178; (R1) 0.7197; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neural for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7209 and sustained trading above 0.7192 should confirm completion of the pull back from 0.7413. Further rise should be seen back to retest 0.7413 high. On the downside, below 0.7100 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7005 support. Break of 0.7005 will resume the correction from 0.7413 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6908) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

AUD/USD stays in consolidation above 0.6356 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. Break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7731; (P) 0.7748; (R1) 0.7778; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.7563 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506, for 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7717 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7395; (P) 0.7426; (R1) 0.7483; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.7492 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high. On the downside, below 0.7342 will target 0.7164 support.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6448; (P) 0.6487; (R1) 0.6563; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first as it’s remaining below 0.6569 resistance. Rebound from 0.5506 might still extend higher. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. on the downside, break of 0.6372 should indicate confirm short term reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163 first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6836; (P) 0.6866; (R1) 0.6891; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first. The correction from 0.7064 is expected to extend with at least one more down leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7219; (P) 0.7255; (R1) 0.7292; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7275 confirms resumption of whole rise from 0.5506. Intraday bias is back on the upside, with focus on 0.7311 long term EMA. Sustained trading above there will pave the way to 0.7635 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.7135 support should indicate short term topping and bring correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6853). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.