Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7636; (P) 0.7665; (R1) 0.7684; More…

AUD/USD weakens mildly today but stays in range of 0.7605/7740. Intraday bias is still neutral at this point. Another rise cannot be ruled out. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7566) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7170; (P) 0.7221; (R1) 0.7300; More…

AUD/USD’s rise rebound 0.6722 resumed by taking out 0.7235 and hits as high as 0.7273 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7393 cluster resistance (61.8% projection of 0.6722 to 0.7235 from 0.7076 at 0.7393). We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside to complete the rebound. On the downside, break of 0.7180 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7076 support. However, sustained break of 0.7393 will indicate near term reversal and target 100% projection at 0.7589 next).

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6933; (P) 0.6998; (R1) 0.7064; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7064 but failed to sustain above 0.7031 resistance again and retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.6898 minor support should indicate short term topping and rejection by 0.7031. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside, for correction back to 0.6569 resistance turned support. On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.7031 will extend the rise from 0.5506.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7326). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7179; (P) 0.7231; (R1) 0.7260; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.7034 support holds. Current development raised the chance that whole fall corrective fall from 0.8005 has completed at 0.6828. Above 0.7282 will extend the rebound to 0.7660 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.7034 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 0.6828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

AUD/USD surged to as high as 0.7183 last week as rise from 0.5506 resumed. But as a temporary top was formed initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6963 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7183 will target long term EMA level at 0.7311 next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6763). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7565; (P) 0.7594; (R1) 0.7612; More….

AUD/USD is still bounded in range below 0.7635 and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7635 will extend the rise from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6825; (P) 0.6864; (R1) 0.6892; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range below 0.7064 short term to and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.7031/64 is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery. On the downside, break of 0.6676 will extend the fall form 0.7064 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6717). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6653; (P) 0.6688; (R1) 0.6728; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6619 continues today but stays well below 0.6792 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Risk stays on the downside with 0.6792 resistance intact. Below 0.6619 will bring retest of 0.6563 low first. sustained break of 0.6563 support will resume the decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6792 at 0.6426.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6609; (P) 0.6637; (R1) 0.6678; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some more consolidations could be seen first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, sustained break break of channel resistance (now at 0.6663) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should then be seen to 0.6894 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7477 extended lower to 0.7169 last week, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7850; (P) 0.7879; (R1) 0.7920; More…

With 0.7948 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could still be seen in AUD/USD. But we’d expect strong support from 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7948 will argue that the pull back is completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8065.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6615; (P) 0.6658; (R1) 0.6686; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD as fall from 0.6798 continues to accelerate lower. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6631 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal. Next target will be 61.8% retracement at 0.6528. On the upside, above 0.6679 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, which is still extending. Break of 0.66870 resistance will extend the rising leg from 0.6269 towards 0.7156 (2023 high). However, break firm break of 0.6619 support will argue that another falling leg has started back towards lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6545; (P) 0.6572; (R1) 0.6595; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral again with today’s retreat. Rebound from 0.5506 might extend but we’d still expect upside to be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 0.6402 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 0.6253 support next.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6664; (P) 0.6742; (R1) 0.6787; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, strong support should be seen from 0.6594 to complete to corrective pattern from 0.6898. On the upside, break of 0.6714 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6894/8 resistance zone. However, sustained break of 0.6594 will dampen this will and bring deeper fall towards 0.6457.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for now as AUD/USD failed to sustain above both 55 D EMA (now at 0.6720) and 55 W EMA (now at 0.6784). On the upside, break of 0.65898 resistance will solidify the case that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has already completed, and target 0.7156 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6457 will likely resume the down trend through 0.6169 (2022 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6736; (P) 0.6767; (R1) 0.6792; More...

AUD/USD’s rally is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100% projection at 0.6971. On the downside, however, break of 0.6723 support will turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg. Break of 0.6870 will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6361 at 0.6962.

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7413 high last week suggests resumption of whole rise form 0.5506. Further rise is expected this week as long as 0.7351 support holds. Next target is 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there should confirm reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Though, rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness for another low through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6503; (P) 0.6533; (R1) 0.6563; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.6476 support. Break there will argue that decline from 0.6870 is ready to resume through 0.6442 low. On the upside, break of 0.6583 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6666 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7689; (P) 0.7733; (R1) 0.7806; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current up trend from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support is needed to be the first sign of short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7354; (P) 0.7381; (R1) 0.7397; More…

Breach of 1.7346 temporary low suggests fall resumption after brief consolidation. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Firm break of 0.7382 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Nonetheless, above 0.7408 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again to bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7125; (P) 0.7191; (R1) 0.7247; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 0.7164 support will confirm that whole rebound from 0.6966 has completed at 0.7660. More importantly, such development will suggest that larger correction from 0.8006 has already started the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6966 low next. On the upside, above 0.7250 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Break of 0.7164 will suggest that such correction is still in progress, with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Next target will be 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.