Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7211; (P) 0.7223; (R1) 0.7240; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.7555 is in progress for 0.7169 support first. Decisive break there will affirm the case that larger decline from 0.8006 is resuming. Next target is 0.7105 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 0.7272 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6381; (P) 0.6417; (R1) 0.6440; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. We’d still expect fall from 0.6569 short term top to extend lower. On the downside, below 0.6372 will target 0.6253 support first. Break there should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

AUD/USD’s steep decline last week mixed up the near term outlook. But for now, further fall is in favor this week as long as 0.6740 minor resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625. On the upside, above 0.6740 will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 for now. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) raises the chance that it’s in progress. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall form 0.7156. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

In the long term picture, focus is back on 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119), which is relatively close to 0.7156 resistance. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for resuming the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) at a later stage. However, sustained break there will argue that the trend has reversed, and rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be on track to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6631; (P) 0.6645; (R1) 0.6669; More...

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6591 extends higher today, but stays below 0.6713 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579 intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

AUD/USD’s down trend resumed last week and reached as low as 0.7020 but rebounded from there. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 0.7159 resistance holds, near term outlook will remain bearish and further decline is expected. Break of 0.7020 extend the down trend from 0.8135 towards 0.6826 low. However, firm break of 0.7159 will be a first sign of trend reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7314 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7519; (P) 0.7545; (R1) 0.7584; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. Some consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected with 0.7485 minor support intact. Above 0.7578 will extend larger rally to 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7485 would suggest short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7309).

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7138; (P) 0.7186; (R1) 0.7218; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7135 support now suggests that it’s correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Intraday bias is back on the downside as fall from 0.7413 would target o 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, break of 0.7234 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7413 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7468; (P) 0.7495; (R1) 0.7543; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7411 is extending. Above 0.7566 will bring stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7411 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7850; (P) 0.7901; (R1) 0.7929; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.8135 continues to as low as 0.7847 so far today and touches 55 day EMA (now at 0.7854). Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will argue that rise from 0.7500 has totally completed and will pave the way to retest this support level. On the upside, above 0.7953 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery will likely be limited below 0.8135 resistance at first attempt.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7196; (R1) 0.7237; More…

AUD/USD’s breach of 0.7227 suggests resumption of larger rise form 0.5506. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7311 long term EMA. On the downside, break of 0.7076 support should confirm short term topping. That will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6776, for correcting the whole rise from 0.5506.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6789). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD’s down trend continued last week and fell to 0.6362, then recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited well below 0.6698 support turned resistance. Break of 0.6362 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. With 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461 firmly taken out, next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

In the long term picture, current medium term downside momentum raises the chance of resumption of long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). It’s still a it early to judge the chance. But break of 0.5506 will target 0.4773 (2001 low).

AUD/USD dropped further to as low as 0.7054 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7228 resistance holds. Current development suggests that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Below 0.7054 will target a retest on 0.6966 low first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7387; (P) 0.7406; (R1) 0.7444; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. The consolidation from 0.7309 could extend further and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But after all, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6817; (P) 0.6856; (R1) 0.6928; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside with focus on 0.6898 resistance. Decisive break there will will firstly confirm resumption of rise from 0.6457. Secondly, that should also confirm completion of the fall from 0.7156 at 0.6457. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6457 to 0.6898 from 0.6594 at 0.7035, and then 0.7156 resistance. On the downside, however, below 0.6840 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6697) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7075; (P) 0.7107; (R1) 0.7135; More…

AUD/USD’s decline accelerates to as low as 0.7027 so far. The strong break of 0.7052 support affirms the case of resumption of fall from 0.7295. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7003 support first. Break will confirm and target 100% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6913. Decisive break there will indicate further downside acceleration. On the upside, above 0.7081 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6169 resumed and accelerated higher last week. The break of 0.6680 support turned resistance carries larger bullish implication. Initial bias stays on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6521 from 0.6271 at 0.6841. On the downside, below 0.6576 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.6680 support confirms medium term bottoming at 0.6169. It’s too early to call for trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 6934) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This week now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

AUD/USD’s correction from 0.8006 extended lower to 0.7562 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7562 will extend the decline to 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7620 from 0.7848 at 0.7462. We’ll look for strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7848 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the correction. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7450; (P) 0.7524; (R1) 0.7568; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7615 will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8006 has completed already. Further rise should then be seen back to 0.7890/8006 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 0.7443 will resume the whole corrective pattern from 0.8006. But we’d expect strong support from 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

AUD/USD’s corrective fall from 0.7156 extended to 0.6854 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and another fall is mildly in favor. Break of 0.6854 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6779. On the upside, break of 0.7010 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.8006 was merely a correction to the rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7186) will raise the chance of up trend resumption through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7097; (P) 0.7115; (R1) 0.7131; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. As long as 0.7210 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. Current down trend from 0.8135 should extend to 161.8% projection of 0.7452 to 0.7201 from 0.7361 at 0.6955. Break will target key support level at 0.6826. On the upside, break of 0.7210 will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.