Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7757; (P) 0.7786; (R1) 0.7832; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. We’re still favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 has completed with three waves down to 0.7530. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.7676 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7815 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to 0.7484 resistance, and then retesting 0.8006 high. However, break of 0.7676 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 0.7530 low support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7351; (P) 0.7382; (R1) 0.7406; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as a temporary top was formed at 0.7413 with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7135 support holds. Break of 0.7413 will resume larger rise from 0.5506 to 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7522; (P) 0.7592; (R1) 0.7647; More…

AUD/USD retreated after hitting 0.7660 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation could be seen but outlook will stay bullish as long a s0.7455 support holds. As noted before, whole corrective decline from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.6966 already. Break of 0.7660 will resume the rise from 0.6966 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6866; (P) 0.6921; (R1) 0.6983; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.7064 and intraday bias remains neutral. we’d still expect another decline. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6727). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6991 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.7399. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 0.7413 high first. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 0.5506 and target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7265 support will extend the consolidation from 0.7413 with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6991 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there should confirm reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Though, rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness for another low through 0.5506 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6887; (P) 0.6897; (R1) 0.6911; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is still mildly in favor with 0.6838 support intact. On the upside, above 0.6938 will extend the rebound from 0.6670 to 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. However, break of 0.6838 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6754 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7502).

A short term top should be formed at 0.6892 last week after the deep decline from there. Initial bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616. Sustained break there will suggest rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.6892 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend rejection. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6909) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7125; (P) 0.7191; (R1) 0.7247; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 0.7164 support will confirm that whole rebound from 0.6966 has completed at 0.7660. More importantly, such development will suggest that larger correction from 0.8006 has already started the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6966 low next. On the upside, above 0.7250 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Break of 0.7164 will suggest that such correction is still in progress, with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Next target will be 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7198; (P) 0.7232; (R1) 0.7269; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp fall and break of 0.7180 minor support today suggests that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 0.7076 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.7076). Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6941 next. On the upside, break of 0.7295 will extend the rebound. but we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7393 key resistance to limit upside to complete the rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7333; (P) 0.7397; (R1) 0.7432; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 0.7309. As noted before, corrective recovery from there has completed at 0.7483 already. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7429 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the correction with another rise through 0.7483. But still, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7273; (P) 0.7297; (R1) 0.7340; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.7201 short term bottom is in progress for 0.7346 support turned resistance. Buy upside is expected to be limited there to bring larger decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the fall from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s corrective fall from 0.8006 resumed last week and reached 0.7408. But as a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong support from 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414 to complete the correction. Break of 0.7589 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance first. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favor the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6921; (P) 0.6935; (R1) 0.6955; More…

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays below 0.7064 high. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect correction from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD’s steep decline last week mixed up the near term outlook. But for now, further fall is in favor this week as long as 0.6740 minor resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625. On the upside, above 0.6740 will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 for now. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) raises the chance that it’s in progress. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall form 0.7156. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

In the long term picture, focus is back on 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119), which is relatively close to 0.7156 resistance. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for resuming the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) at a later stage. However, sustained break there will argue that the trend has reversed, and rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be on track to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6631; (P) 0.6645; (R1) 0.6669; More...

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6591 extends higher today, but stays below 0.6713 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579 intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

AUD/USD’s down trend resumed last week and reached as low as 0.7020 but rebounded from there. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 0.7159 resistance holds, near term outlook will remain bearish and further decline is expected. Break of 0.7020 extend the down trend from 0.8135 towards 0.6826 low. However, firm break of 0.7159 will be a first sign of trend reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7314 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7519; (P) 0.7545; (R1) 0.7584; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. Some consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected with 0.7485 minor support intact. Above 0.7578 will extend larger rally to 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7485 would suggest short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7309).

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7138; (P) 0.7186; (R1) 0.7218; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7135 support now suggests that it’s correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Intraday bias is back on the downside as fall from 0.7413 would target o 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, break of 0.7234 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7413 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6527; (P) 0.6539; (R1) 0.6557; More…

AUD/USD recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 0.6616. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 0.5506 might still extend. However, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 0.6402 support will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6616 at 0.6192.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6634; (P) 0.6665; (R1) 0.6706; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as range trading continues, and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 0.6169. Meanwhile, nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.