Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6473; (P) 0.6495; (R1) 0.6536; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6269 resumes today by breaking through 0.6541 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current development argues that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should be seen to falling channel resistance (now at 0.6676) next. Nevertheless, below 0.6451 support will dampen this bullish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6314; (P) 0.6330; (R1) 0.6358; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Outlook remains bearish with 0.6444 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6284 will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6444 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7578; (P) 0.7604; (R1) 0.7622; More….

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. With 0.7523 minor support intact, further rise is still expected for 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout at. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7211; (P) 0.7251; (R1) 0.7275; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is probably ready to resume. Further fall should be seen to 0.7169 support first. Break will target 0.7105 and below. On the upside, break of 0.7369 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6935; (P) 0.6960; (R1) 0.6977; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.6910 support. Break will confirm that rebound from 0.6831 has completed with three waves up to 0.7082. Such development will also argue that fall from 0.7295 is in progress for 0.6722 low. On the upside, above 0.6991 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7351; (P) 0.7382; (R1) 0.7406; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as a temporary top was formed at 0.7413 with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7135 support holds. Break of 0.7413 will resume larger rise from 0.5506 to 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6619; (R1) 0.6641; More...

While AUD/USD’s retreat from 0.6713 extends lower, it’s staying above 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7725; (P) 0.7745; (R1) 0.7771; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7772 resistance suggests that pull back from 0.7890 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7890 first. Break will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8004 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7715 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7833; (P) 0.7861; (R1) 0.7879; More…

AUD/USD lost momentum after hitting 0.7896 and retreated. A temporary top was formed and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor for the moment. Break of 0.7896 will target a test on 0.8124 high. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7732 will resume the decline from 0.8124 and target medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will firm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6971; (P) 0.7020; (R1) 0.7096; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook remains bearish as with 0.7282 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.6828 support will resume larger fall from 0.8006. Next target is 0.6756/60 cluster support. However, firm break of 0.7282 will be a sign of bullish reversal and bring stronger rebound to 0.7666 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7494; (P) 0.7514; (R1) 0.7526; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is formed at 0.7500. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7652 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 0.7500 will extend the fall from 0.8124 and target 0.7322/8 cluster support next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8029). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6867; (P) 0.6896; (R1) 0.6915; More…

AUD/USD recovers higher of 4 hour 55 EMA but stays below 0.6929 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. In case of another fall, downside of retreat should be contained above 0.6809 support to bring another rise. Above 0.6929 will target 0.7082 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.6809 support will revive bearishness and target 0.6670 low again.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bullish reversal is building up with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. But there is no clear confirmation yet. As long as 0.7082 resistance holds, larger down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7531).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6788; (P) 0.6807; (R1) 0.6820; More…

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7349; (P) 0.7391; (R1) 0.7420; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside as fall from 0.7555 resumes. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 0.7393) will argue that rebound from 0.7105 is complete with three waves up to 0.7555. That would also argue that fall from 0.8006 is ready to resume through 0.7105 low. On the upside, above 0.7431 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7555 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

AUD/USD stayed in range below 0.6444 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral first and another rise could be seen as long as 0.6253 support holds. Break of 0.6444 will resume the rebound form 0.5506 to 0.6670 key resistance next. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7165; (P) 0.7185; (R1) 0.7204; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in consolidation above 0.7151 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7246 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7151 will extend the fall from 0.7393 to retest 0.7020 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.7246 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside. Rebound from 0.7020 could then probably head to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6375; (P) 0.6409; (R1) 0.6436; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6363 is extending. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6757; (P) 0.6776; (R1) 0.6797; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 0.6677 is still in progress. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6654; (P) 0.6680; (R1) 0.6717; More…

AUD/USD is still staying in consolidation from 0.6594 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further fall is in favor with 0.6719 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could be seen but downside should be contained above 0.6169. This will now remain the favored case as high as 0.6898 resistance holds. Nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6817; (P) 0.6861; (R1) 0.6885; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7135 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. As noted before, corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Retest of 0.6680 should be seen next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7008 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7135 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.