AUD/USD was initially rejected by 0.6539 resistance and dipped to 0.6271 last week, but recovered notably since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6521 resistance will now complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.6362; h: 0.6169; rs: 0.6271). That would also come with sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6533). Near term outlook will then be turned bullish for 0.6680/7315 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6271 will bring retest of 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 0.8006 could still be seen as a corrective move, considering that it failed to break through 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6202 decisively. Strong rebound from current level will keep long term outlook neutral first. However, sustained break of 0.6202 will open up deep fall to retest 0.5506.

AUD/USD’s rebound was limited at 0.7915 last week and reversed. Subsequent sharp fall and break of 0.7712 support indicates resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.7500 key support next.

One of the interpretation of recent price actions is that price action from 0.7758 to 0.7915 were a three wave consolidation pattern. If that’s true, the fact that 0.7712 was well below 0.7758 indicates strong selling pressure even inside that consolidation. That is, decline from 0.7915 would then be a very powerful move that could takes out 0.7500 easily. We’ll keep an eye on it to see if there is any further downside acceleration ahead.

On the upside, above 0.7769 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7915 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6439; (P) 0.6504; (R1) 0.6537; More…

Break of 0.6482 minor support argues that rebound from 0.6361 has completed importantly, fall from 0.6870 might not be over yet. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6361 low next. On the upside, above 0.6513 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

AUD/USD stayed in correction from 0.5506 last week and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7689; (P) 0.7733; (R1) 0.7806; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current up trend from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support is needed to be the first sign of short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6715; (P) 0.6738; (R1) 0.6770; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first. Prior rejection by 55 day EMA is a near term bearish sign. Decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 0.6915 resistance will be a near term bullish signal, and bring stronger rally through 0.7008 towards 0.7135 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7529; (P) 0.7560; (R1) 0.7578; More…

AUD/USD is staying in tight range between 0.7502 and 0.7604 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7502 minor support will suggest that the corrective recovery from 0.7411 has completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 0.7411 and below to resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7094; (P) 0.7163; (R1) 0.7232; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7313 resistance will argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. However, break of 0.7085 support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6966 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.6713 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7486; (P) 0.7506; (R1) 0.7521; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first with focus on 0.7476 support. Decisive break there will resume the corrective pattern from 0.8006 towards 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7644 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favors the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6744; (P) 0.6766; (R1) 0.6786; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6804 resistance will indicate completion of whole fall from 0.7156, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. However, break of 0.6716 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.6804. That would retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6563/72 support zone, with prospect of resuming the whole decline from 0.7156.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

AUD/USD’s reaches as high as 0.7635 last week as the rebound from 0.7328 extended. Further rally is expected this week as long as 0.7523 support holds. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout at. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7603; (P) 0.7661; (R1) 0.7767; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound and break of 0.7631 resistance indicates that the pull back from 0.7740 is completed. The development indicates that rise from 0.7158 is likely resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7740 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 next. That coincides with key long term retracement level at 0.7849. On the downside, outlook will stay bullish now as long as 0.7490 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8185) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7402; (P) 0.7444; (R1) 0.7482; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Current rally 0.5506 should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6715; (P) 0.6728; (R1) 0.6749; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation form 0.6677 is extending. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618. On the upside, above 0.6822 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6528; (P) 0.6548; (R1) 0.6568; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 0.6513 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6623) holds. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6528 will resume the fall from 0.6798 to 0.6361 support next.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6798 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6852; (P) 0.6868; (R1) 0.6882; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.6807 minor support. Break will suggests that corrective recovery from 0.6677 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for retesting 0.6677. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6894 will resume the rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7082 key resistance to bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6897; (P) 0.6976; (R1) 0.7023; More…

AUD/USD’s decline resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall is p[art of the decline from 0.8006 and should target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 0.7052 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7265 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7921; (P) 0.7940; (R1) 0.7971; More…

AUD/USD edges higher to 0.7988 and hit target of 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950. The pair is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the upside with 0.7908 minor support intact. Sustained trading above 0.7950 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8335 next. On the downside, below 0.7908 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring pull back. But downside should be contained by 0.7711 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6736; (P) 0.6767; (R1) 0.6792; More...

AUD/USD’s rally is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100% projection at 0.6971. On the downside, however, break of 0.6723 support will turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg. Break of 0.6870 will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6361 at 0.6962.