Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6659; (P) 0.6717; (R1) 0.6762; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Decisive break of 0.6677 low will resume larger down trend. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.7082 to 0.667 from 0.6894 at 0.6644 and then 100% projection at 0.6489. On the upside, 0.6776 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s down trend from 0.8006 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 0.6762. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7402; (P) 0.7444; (R1) 0.7482; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Current rally 0.5506 should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6619; (R1) 0.6641; More...

While AUD/USD’s retreat from 0.6713 extends lower, it’s staying above 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100% projection at 0.6971. On the downside, however, break of 0.6723 support will turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg. Break of 0.6870 will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6361 at 0.6962.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8006 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 0.6828. But as a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds. Break of 0.6828 will target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

AUD/USD retreated after surging to 0.6588 last week. But late breach of this resistance indicates that recent rally is resuming. Initial bias is back on the upside this week. Current rise from 0.6269 should target falling channel resistance (now at 0.6670) next. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6520 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7760; (P) 0.7799; (R1) 0.7825; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in range above 0.7712 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7892 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7393 extended to as low as 0.7033 last week and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remain son the downside for 0.7020 key support first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7148 resistance holds. However, firm break of 0.7148 will suggest that correction from 0.7020 is extending with another rise. intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 0.7393 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7214; (P) 0.7248; (R1) 0.7274; More…

AUD/USD’s drops to as low as 0.7201 so far and met 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7225 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside for next target at 100% projection at 0.7085. On the upside, above 0.7251 minor resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited well below 0.7452 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7614; (P) 0.7656; (R1) 0.7720; More…

AUD/USD’s correction from 0.7819 is still extending. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.6991 to 0.7819 at 0.7503. Overall, the up trend from 0.5506 would remain intact as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds. Another rise is still in favor at a later stage to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7872; (P) 0.7900; (R1) 0.7945; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current up trend from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. We’d pay attention to the reaction to 0.8135 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7854 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7148; (P) 0.7176; (R1) 0.7193; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral after failing to take out 0.7235 resistance and retreated. For now, as long as 0.7076 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 0.7235 will extend the rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 resistance next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7062 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall outlook stays bullish as long as 0.6721 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7062 will resume rise from 0.6169 to 61.8% projection of 0.6169 to 0.6892 from 0.6721 at 0.7168 next. However, firm break of 0.6721 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.8006 was merely a correction to the rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7193) will raise the chance of up trend resumption through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7179; (P) 0.7202; (R1) 0.7237; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is in place at 0.7165 in AUD/USD. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. Stronger recovery could be seen back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.7269. But upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7165 will target 100% projection of 0.7452 to 0.7201 from 0.7361 at 0.7110. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.6955.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a medium term correction should be seen first before down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6397; (P) 0.6421; (R1) 0.6467; More…

AUD/USD retreats after hitting 0.6444, failing to sustain above 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6416. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that rebound from 0.5506 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation. On the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound to 100% projection at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7019; (P) 0.7075; (R1) 0.7106; More…

AUD/USD fell notably after rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA. But downside is held above 0.7040 low so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rebound cannot be ruled out yet. But upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, firm break of 0.7040 will resume whole down trend from 0.8135 to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7209; (R1) 0.7241; More…

AUD/USD recovers ahead of near term channel support, but stays well below 0.7313 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7146; (P) 0.7169; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD’s strong break of 0.7095 suggests that recovery from 0.7005 has completed at 0.7243. Correction fall form 0.7413 should be ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7005 first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. On the upside, above 0.7128 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6915) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7185; (R1) 0.7249; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7223 suggests resumption of rebound from 0.6992. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7236) will argue that fall from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6992, after defending 0.6991 support. Further rally would be seen to 0.7555 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 0.7081 support will turn focus back to 0.6991/2 support instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.