Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6634; (P) 0.6672; (R1) 0.6693; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first, and risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6817 resistance holds. Consolidation pattern from 0.6563 could have completed with three waves to 0.6817. Below 0.6635 will bring retest of 0.6563 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.7156 to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817 at 0.6451.

In the bigger picture, the failure to break through 55 W EMA (now at 0.6822) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7237; (P) 0.7262; (R1) 0.7285; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current development suggests that consolidation pattern from 0.7413 has completed at 0.6991 already. Further rally should be seen to retest 0.7413 high first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 0.5506. On the downside, however, break of 0.7221 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus back to 0.6991 support.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6969) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7165; (P) 0.7185; (R1) 0.7204; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in consolidation above 0.7151 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7246 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7151 will extend the fall from 0.7393 to retest 0.7020 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.7246 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside. Rebound from 0.7020 could then probably head to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7395; (P) 0.7415; (R1) 0.7431; More…

Upside momentum in AUD/USD is bit unconvincing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rally is expected as long as 0.7372 minor support holds. Current rise from 0.5506 target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7464; (P) 0.7486; (R1) 0.7521; More…

A temporary top is formed at 0.7506 on loss of upside momentum. Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7372 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7506 will target 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. On the downside, however, break of 0.7372 will dampen this bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7531; (P) 0.7553; (R1) 0.7590; More…

AUD/USD rises to as high as 0.7621 so far as rebound from 0.7411 resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside further rally. But such rebound is viewed as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7475 will bring retest of 0.7411 low first. Break will resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial fall to 0.6630 last week. But upside is capped below 0.6510 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.6330 will resume the whole decline from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. However, firm break of 0.6510 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7423; (P) 0.7448; (R1) 0.7483; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7411 temporary low. As long as 0.7559 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. Break of 0.7411 will target cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Sustained break will add more credence to the case of long term down trend resumption and target 0.7158 support next. On the upside, break of 0.7559 resistance, however, will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Lengthier consolidation would then be seen before another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6508; (P) 0.6532; (R1) 0.6577; More…

A temporary top should be formed in AUD/USD at 0.6569, with today’s retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise could still be seen as long as 0.6444 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.6569 will extend the rebound from 0.5506 to 0.6670 key resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6444 will suggest short term topping on bearish divergence in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6253 support first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6578; (P) 0.6625; (R1) 0.6709; More…

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6269 resumed by breaking through 0.6689 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Also, the firm break of medium term channel resistance suggests that whole fall from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rise should be seen to 0.6894 resistance next. Meanwhile, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.6524 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6625; (P) 0.6650; (R1) 0.6701; More…

Further rally is expected in AUD/USD as long as 0.6570 support holds. Sustained break of channel resistance (now at 0.6652) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should then be seen to 0.6894 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6570 support will indicate rejection by the channel and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7529; (R1) 0.7568; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7472 temporary low. As long as 0.7583 minor resistance holds, the consolidation should be relatively brief and recent fall should resume sooner rather than later. Below 0.7472 and sustained break of 0.7500 will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. However, break of 0.7583 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7472 at 0.7725 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7440 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. But still, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6355; (P) 0.6374; (R1) 0.6395; More…

Break of 0.6247 minor resistance argues that AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.6521 has completed at 0.6337 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508). Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and turn outlook bullish. Nevertheless, break of 0.6337 will bring retest of 0.6269 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

AUD/USD’s recovery last week was capped below 55 day EMA and reversed. Initial bias is now back on the downside for 0.6563 low first. Decisive break of 0.6546 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, however, break of 0.6758 resistance will now be a strong signal of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7158) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

AUD/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that rise from 0.6457 is still in progress. But as a temporary top was formed at 0.6894, initial bias is neutral this week first. Decisive break of 0.6898 resistance will firstly confirm resumption of rise from 0.6457. Secondly, that should also confirm completion of the fall from 0.7156 at 0.6457. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6457 to 0.6898 from 0.6594 at 0.7035, and then 0.7156 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6703) holds.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7088) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6988; (P) 0.7002; (R1) 0.7032; More…

AUD/USD’s focus is now on 0.7064 resistance with today’s rally. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 0.5506. On the downside, though, break of 0.6963 support will suggest rejection from 0.7064. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6676 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6750). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7682; (P) 0.7748; (R1) 0.7788; More…

Intraday bias sin AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Break of 0.7691 will extend the correction from 0.8006 lower. But overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7563 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7844 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.8006. However, decisive break of 0.7563 will bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

With the late decline last week, AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6284 should have completed at 0.6444 already. Decisive break of 0.6284 this week will resume whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195, which is close to 0.6169 medium term support. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6444 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6659; (P) 0.6717; (R1) 0.6762; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Decisive break of 0.6677 low will resume larger down trend. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.7082 to 0.667 from 0.6894 at 0.6644 and then 100% projection at 0.6489. On the upside, 0.6776 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.