Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7167; (P) 0.7213; (R1) 0.7244; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for consolidation below 0.7258 temporary top. But with 0.7159 minor support intact, another rise is expected. Current development t argues that a medium term bottom might be in place at 0.7020. Firm break of 0.7314 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, sustained break of 0.7159 will turn focus back to 0.7020 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

AUD/USD rebounded strongly to 0.6804 last week but failed to sustained above 0.6792 resistance and dropped sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7145) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6386; (P) 0.6416; (R1) 0.6443; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. While recovery from 0.6284 could extend higher, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6500 resistance holds. Below 0.6284 will resume the fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7379; (P) 0.7462; (R1) 0.7506; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7158 resumed by taking out 0.7439 and reaches as low as 0.7404 so far. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, rise from 0.7158 has completed at 0.7748 already. Further fall should be seen back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. At this point, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong support from 0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. But, break of 0.7555 resistance is now needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8118) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7259; (P) 0.7281; (R1) 0.7312; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and further fall is mildly in favor with 0.7315 minor resistance intact. n the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7543; (P) 0.7566; (R1) 0.7601; More…

A temporary low is in place at 0.7531 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.7729 resistance and bring another decline. Break of 0.7531 will resume the whole fall from 0.8124 and turn bias to the downside for next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. However, considering bullish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7729 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7896 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8049). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6982; (P) 0.7014; (R1) 0.7060; More…

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7045 but quickly retreated again. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7454; (P) 0.7480; (R1) 0.7501; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 is still in progress and could target 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. At this point, we’d still expect strong resistance from this zone to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6638; (P) 0.6672; (R1) 0.6693; More…

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6870 resumed by breaking through 0.6639 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6870 at 0.6497 next. On the upside, break of 0.6728 is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, further fall would remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7403; (P) 0.7421; (R1) 0.7439; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen first. Further rise is in favor with 0.7322 minor support intact. Above 0.7439 will target 0.7477 resistance first. Firm break there will argue that larger decline from 0.8006 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7541, and then 161.8% projection at 0.7771. On the downside, though, below 0.7322 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7169 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7417; (P) 0.7443; (R1) 0.7480; More…

AUD/USD’s corrective recovery is still in progress and could extend higher. But upside is expected to be limited below 0.7555 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7388 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Break of 0.7328 will extend the decline from 0.7748 to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7555 will argue that fall from 0.7748 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8115) and above.

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. On the downside, below 0.6699 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6619 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance..

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7579; (P) 0.7609; (R1) 0.7666; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound and break of 0.7652 indicates short term bottoming at 0.7500, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is now on the upside for further rise. However, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7732 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.77385) to limit upside to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7579 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7500 and believe. However, sustained break of 0.7732 should invalidate our bearish view and bring stronger rise through 61.8% retracement at 0.7886.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8029). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7522; (P) 0.7592; (R1) 0.7647; More…

AUD/USD retreated after hitting 0.7660 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation could be seen but outlook will stay bullish as long a s0.7455 support holds. As noted before, whole corrective decline from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.6966 already. Break of 0.7660 will resume the rise from 0.6966 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7320; (P) 0.7349; (R1) 0.7365; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7288. Outlook stays bearish as long as 0.7443 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the fall from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7348; (R1) 0.7368; More…

AUD/USD formed a temporary low at 0.7322 and recovered. But it’s staying below 0.7443 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper fall is expected as long as 0.7443 resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.7326/8cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend larger fall from 0.8315 to 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. Firm break there will resume the long term down trend from 1.1079 and take 0.6008 support next (2008 low). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6724; (P) 0.6752; (R1) 0.6784; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged too. Further rise is expected as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.6796 will resume the rise from 0.6169 to 0.6871 fibonacci level. However, sustained break of 0.6521 will argue that whole rebound from 0.6169 is over, and bring deeper fall to retest this low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.6160 already. But it’s too early to call for trend reversal. Nevertheless, even as a corrective move, rise from 0.6169 should target 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6927) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6521 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7302; (P) 0.7338; (R1) 0.7388; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Near term outlook was mixed up as the pair defended key support level at 0.7144. Nonetheless, deeper fall is in favor a long as 38.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394 holds, which is close to the falling 55 day EMA. Below 0.7287 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Firm break of 0.7144 will confirm our bearish view that corrective pattern from 0.6826 has completed and larger down trend is resuming for another low. Though, sustained trading above 0.7394 will turn focus back to 0.7777/7833 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7836; (P) 0.7855; (R1) 0.7882; More…

AUD/USD continues to stay in tight range above 0.7784 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Focus stays on 0.7807 key near term support. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 support will indicate near term reversal. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7674) first. Meanwhile, rebound from 0.7807 will retain bullishness. Above 0.7907 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. In case of further rally, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7807 is the first signal that such correction is focused. Break of 0.7328 will bring retest of 0.6826 low.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.7472 last week but failed to sustain below 0.7490 support and rebounded. The development argues that rise from 0.7158 is possibly not completed yet. And another rally could be seen through 0.7748 resistance to test key long term fibonacci level at 0.7849.

Initial bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside this week for 0.7678 resistance. Break there will confirm completion of the pull back from 0.7748. And rise from 0.7158 would be resuming. AUD/USD should target 0.7748 and above next. On the downside, below 0.7530 minor support will turn bias neutral again, with focus back on 0.7472 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8144) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.