Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7373; (P) 0.7390; (R1) 0.7405; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7309. Intraday bias remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.6677 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6384; (P) 0.6447; (R1) 0.6485; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.6569 short term top should target 0.6253 support next. Break there should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7883; (P) 0.7909; (R1) 0.7938; More…

AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum, but with 0.7854 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Current from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. We’d pay attention to the reaction to 0.8135 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7854 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD rebounded to 0.7760 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. We’re favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 has completed with three waves down to 0.7530. Above 0.7760 will extend the rebound to 0.7848 resistance first. Break there should confirm this bullish case and bring retest of 0.8006 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7583 support holds.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6879; (P) 0.6906; (R1) 0.6925; More…

AUD/USD recovered to 0.6933 but failed to sustain above 0.6930 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. As noted before, rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. On the downside, break of 0.6849 will target 0.6754 support to confirm this bearish case. However, firm break of 0.6930 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7487).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7153; (P) 0.7177; (R1) 0.7219; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise could be seen as long as 0.7109 support holds. Break of 0.7275 will target 0.7311 long term EMA. Nevertheless, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7109 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for correction towards 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6804). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6415; (P) 0.6477; (R1) 0.6515; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Firm break of 0.6461 long term fibonacci level will target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6573 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7265; (P) 0.7282; (R1) 0.7293; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays inside consolidation from 0.7413. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7135 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. However, on the downside, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (0.7113) and below as correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7217; (P) 0.7232; (R1) 0.7260; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7020 resumes by taking out 0.7258. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7314 resistance. Current development argues that a medium term bottom might be in place at 0.7020. Firm break of 0.7314 will confirm this bullish case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, on the downside, break of 0.7159 will turn focus back to 0.7020 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7422; (P) 0.7442; (R1) 0.7457; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with today’s retreat. Some consolidations could be seen. But further rally is in favor as long as 0.7279 support intact. As noted before, correction from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.7105 already. Above 0.7477 will target 0.7530 support turned resistance first. However, firm break of 0.7279 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 0.7105 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7406; (P) 0.7440; (R1) 0.7489; More…

AUD/USD recovered again after dipping to 0.7390 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 0.7390 will resume the fall from 0.7660. On the upside, above 0.7518 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7511; (P) 0.7538; (R1) 0.7553; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery was limited at 0.7566 and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. More consolidations could be seen in near term. Above 0.7566 will bring another rise. But in that case, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7411 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7344; (P) 0.7374; (R1) 0.7407; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise should target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 0.7340 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 0.7135 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7639; (P) 0.7685; (R1) 0.7715; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7633 so far today. Break of 0.7642 confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7500 key support level next. Break there will indicate medium term reversal. On the upside, above 0.7682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.7812 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6549; (P) 0.6565; (R1) 0.6580; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. Recovery from 0.6442 could extend higher, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.6520 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.6442. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.6621 will turn near term outlook bullish for 0.6870 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7764; (P) 0.7777; (R1) 0.7793; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 0.7819 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.5506, for 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7717 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6715; (P) 0.6732; (R1) 0.6742; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6677 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Recovery might extend but upside upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.6670/7 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7120; (P) 0.7134; (R1) 0.7160; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7167 will resume the rebound from 0.6966 and target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction form 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.7050 minor support will bring retest of 0.6966 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

AUD/USD rose further to 0.7660 last week but formed at short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7343). On the upside, above 0.7518 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7660. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.6991 to retest 0.8006 high.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.