Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6702; (P) 0.6737; (R1) 0.6777; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6843; (P) 0.6871; (R1) 0.6919; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6823 minor support argues that rebound from 0.6698 has completed. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, further break of 0.6680 low will resume larger down trend. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.6915) will target 0.7135 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7128; (P) 0.7188; (R1) 0.7229; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as it retreated sharply after hitting 0.7247. Further rise is still mildly in favor with 0.7050 minor support intact. Above 0.7247 will target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7357; (P) 0.7383; (R1) 0.7423; More…

AUD/USD rebounded strongly after hitting 0.7342, supported well above 0.7309 low. The development suggests that consolidation from 0.7309 is extending with another rise. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 0.7483 minor resistance or above. But still, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7064; (P) 0.7086; (R1) 0.7110; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7060 temporary low. More consolidation could be see, but risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.7295 resistance holds. For now, we’re favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside, firm break of 0.7076 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.7076) should confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7458; (P) 0.7488; (R1) 0.7510; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral, but further rally is expected as long as 0.7455 support holds. As noted before, whole corrective decline from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.6966 already. Break of 0.7660 will resume the rise from 0.6966 to retest 0.8006 high. However, firm break of 0.7455 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7811; (P) 0.7828; (R1) 0.7850; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886). Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.7896/44 to bring a short term top. Break of 0.7804 minor support should turn intraday bias back to the downside for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.7764) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8032). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7643; (P) 0.7677; (R1) 0.7699; More…

AUD/USD is staying in tight range below 0.7731 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged. With 0.7605 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out yet. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7539) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6703; (P) 0.6734; (R1) 0.6762; More…

AUD/USD is staying in tight range above 0.6693 low and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.

AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 0.7060 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first for some consolidation. For now, we’re favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. Hence, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7295 resistance holds, in case of recovery. On the downside, firm break of 0.7076 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.7076) should confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD formed a temporary low at 0.7219 last week and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.7219 will resume the fall from 0.7477 to retest 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7320 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above. Rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7707; (P) 0.7731; (R1) 0.7746; More…

With 0.7650 minor support intact, further rise is expected in AUD/USD for 0.7819 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7650 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7323; (P) 0.7347; (R1) 0.7371; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.7275 temporary low is extending. But further decline is in favor as long as 0.7431 minor resistance holds. Rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is still in progress. On the downside, below 0.7275 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. However, break of 0.7431 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7739; (P) 0.7755; (R1) 0.7772; More…

At this point, AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.7642/7784. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, with 0.7784 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.7642 will resume the decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6764; (P) 0.6781; (R1) 0.6795; More…

AUD/USD’s breach of 0.6769 temporary low suggests resumption of fall from 0.6929. Intraday bias is now turned back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6803 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But as we see that corrective rise from 0.6670 has completed at 0.6929, any recovery should be limited well below 0.6929 resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7240; (P) 0.7261; (R1) 0.7272; More…

At this point, AUD/USD is staying above 0.7228 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Above 0.7303 will extend the corrective rebound form 0.7804. But upside should be limited below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7255; (P) 0.7280; (R1) 0.7308; More…

AUD/USD recovers further today but stays inside range below 0.7413. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise remains in favor with 0.7135 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will resume the rally from 0.5506 and target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.7135 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7755; (P) 0.7773; (R1) 0.7786; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise remains mildly in favor with 0.7725 minor support intact. Above 0.7809 will target 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. However, below 0.7725 will bring retest of 0.7642 low instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

AUD/USD’s choppy rebound from 0.6776 extended higher last week. But overall outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.7064 are seen as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 0.6776 as the second leg. Upside should be limited by 0.7064 resistance to bring one more down leg. On the downside, below 0.6922 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6776 support and below. However, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6741). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7569; (P) 0.7626; (R1) 0.7660; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as price actions from 0.7711 are viewed as a corrective move so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 0.7534 support intact, another rise is in favor. Above 0.7643 will bring retest of 0.7711. Break will extend the rally from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, break of 0.7534 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8096) and above.