Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7209; (P) 0.7221; (R1) 0.7235; More…

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7314 resumed after brief consolidations. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.7143 support first. Break should resume whole decline from 0.8135 through 0.7804 support. On the upside, above 0.7240 minor resistance could extend the corrective rebound from 0.7084 with another rise. But upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7078; (P) 0.7099; (R1) 0.7113; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7172 will resume the rebound from 0.7061 to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7308). On the downside, break of 0.7061 will extend the larger fall form 0.8006. But we’d look for support from 0.6991/7051 key support zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break there will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has probably reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.7309 last week but quickly rebounded. As short term bottom was in place on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7510). But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6966 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.7379. The break of 0.7313 resistance argues that fall from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. Initial bias stays on the upside this week first 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.7275 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is still in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7498; (P) 0.7545; (R1) 0.7572; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. A short term top should be in place at 0.7639, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, hitting 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. Risk stays on the downside for deeper correction. Break of 0.7461 will turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7354).

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7247 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some consolidation could be seen. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 0.7050 support holds. Above 0.7247 will target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7115; (P) 0.7149; (R1) 0.7205; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. A short term bottom is in place at 0.7084 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rebound could be seen towards 55 day EMA (now at 0.7322). But upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6639; (P) 0.6668; (R1) 0.6685; More…

Intraday in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as sideway trading continues above 0.6594. With 0.6710 resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.6594 will resume the decline from 0.6898 to 0.6457 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6719 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 only, rather than part of larger down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6457 could be seen but downside should be contained above 0.6169. This will now remain the favored case as high as 0.6898 resistance holds. Nevertheless, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7546; (P) 0.7564; (R1) 0.7598; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7531 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7642 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 0.7531 will resume larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7642 will be an early sign of near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.7812 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6635; (P) 0.6657; (R1) 0.6672; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues below 0.6713. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

AUD/USD gyrated to 0.7076 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that fall from 0.7235 is merely a correction and has completed. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 0.7235 resistance first. Break till resume whole rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 resistance next. We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. For now, in case of retreat, near term outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.7076 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Despite dipping to 0.6910, AUD/USD recovered strongly from there. The development suggests that rise from 0.6831 is no completed yet. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for 0.7047 resistance first. Break will resume the rise from 0.6831 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.7295 to 0.6831 at 0.7118 first. Sustained break till target 0.7295 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6967 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6910 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6811; (P) 0.6862; (R1) 0.6923; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective fall from 0.7064 short term top is in progress. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. On the upside, firm break of 0.7031/64 is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6717). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6925; (P) 0.6938; (R1) 0.6959; More…

AUD/USD rises to as high as 0.6955 so far today. Break of 0.6938 suggests resumption of whole rise from 0.6670. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 100% projection of 0.6670 to 0.6929 from 0.6754 at 0.7013 next. On the downside, break of 0.6911 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.6838 support holds.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7502).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6731; (P) 0.6763; (R1) 0.6782; More…

AUD/USD weakens after failing to break 4 hour 55 EMA. But it’s staying above 0.6677 short term bottom. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. In case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7721; (P) 0.7761; (R1) 0.7797; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.7837 will suggest that the correction from 0.8006 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 0.7620 will target 0.7563 support. Firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

AUD/USD’s steep decline last week argues that rebound from 0.6269 has completed at 0.6521. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for retesting 0.6269 low. On the upside, above 0.6390 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is still in progress. Break of 0.6269 will resume the down trend and target 0.6169 (2022 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6521 will now indicate medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.7084 last week but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. With a temporary top in place at 0.7228, initial bias is neutral this week first. Another rise could be seen as the correction from 0.7084 extends. But upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6423; (P) 0.6473; (R1) 0.6508; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as range trading continues. Another rise could be seen through 0.6569 resistance. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 0.6372 support should confirm short term reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163 first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7689; (P) 0.7733; (R1) 0.7806; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current up trend from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support is needed to be the first sign of short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.