Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7508; (P) 0.7545; (R1) 0.7566; More…

AUD/USD dips lower to 0.7524 as recent fall resumes. Intraday bias is back on the downside with focus on 0.7500 key support level. Decisive break there will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. On the upside, above 0.7583 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. In that case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 0.7642 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6768; (P) 0.6784; (R1) 0.6814; More…

AUD/USD rebounds further today and is pressing 0.6822 resistance. Break will resume rebound from 0.6677. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.6910 support turned resistance. Though, rejection by 0.6822 resistance will maintain near term bearishness. Break of 0.6677 will extend larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6717; (P) 0.6741; (R1) 0.6755; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. Recovery from 0.6678 was limited limited by 0.6777 resistance as expected and near term outlook stays bearish. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low will confirm resumption of larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6008 key support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6777 will indicate short term bottoming and extend the consolidation pattern from 0.6670 with another near term rise.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). This will remain the favor case as long as 0.7031 resistance holds.

AUD/USD formed a temporary top at 0.7539 last week, ahead of 0.7555 resistance, and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 0.7372 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7555 should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. However, break of 0.7372 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6400; (P) 0.6440; (R1) 0.6464; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point, as decline from 0.7156 extends. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, above 0.6479 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be in progress. Break of 0.6457 support affirms this bearish case. Further break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7347; (P) 0.7400; (R1) 0.7427; More…

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7279 so far today. The break of 0.7309 confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall should target 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7225 first. Break will target 100% projection at 0.7085 next. On the upside, above 0.7347 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7452 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. The break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) affirms this bearish view. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance might indicate medium term bottoming. But we’ll continue to favor the bearish view as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7492; (P) 0.7517; (R1) 0.7542; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation above 0.7472 temporary low. With 0.7583 minor resistance intact, recent decline should resume sooner rather than later. Below 0.7472 and sustained break of 0.7500 will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. However, break of 0.7583 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7472 at 0.7725 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6689 last week but failed to sustain above channel resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk stays mildly on the downside as long as 0.6689 resistance holds. Break of 0.6524 will resume the fall from 0.6689 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6491).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.7156 as the second leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7172; (P) 0.7192; (R1) 0.7217; More…

As long as 0.7234 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected in AUD/USD. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7452 to 0.7201 from 0.7361 at 0.7110. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.6955. However, break of 0.7234 will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a medium term correction should be seen first before down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6462; (P) 0.6501; (R1) 0.6523; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6433 finally confirms larger down trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline should target 61.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6314 and then 100% projection at 0.6086. On the upside, break of 0.6684 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6059; (P) 0.6130; (R1) 0.6236; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.5506 is still in progress. Such rebound is seen as a correction and should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.6684 to 0.5506 at 0.6234 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.5870 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.5506 low first. However, sustained break of 0.6234 will dampen immediate bearish case and turn focus back to 0.6684 resistance.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7753; (P) 0.7786; (R1) 0.7840; More…

Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support is needed to be the first sign of short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7678; (P) 0.7699; (R1) 0.7737; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.7642 temporary low is still in progress. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7784 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.7642 to will turn bias to the downside to extend recent fall from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6962; (P) 0.7031; (R1) 0.7068; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but outlook remains unchanged. Intraday bias stays on the downside with focus on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7890 to 0.7105 from 0.7555 at 0.6770. On the upside, break of 0.7172 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 0.6991 cluster support will argue that the who up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461). For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7552; (P) 0.7565; (R1) 0.7592; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumes by breaking 0.7578 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. On the downside, break of 0.7507 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7529; (P) 0.7560; (R1) 0.7578; More…

AUD/USD is staying in tight range between 0.7502 and 0.7604 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7502 minor support will suggest that the corrective recovery from 0.7411 has completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 0.7411 and below to resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7513; (P) 0.7545; (R1) 0.7566; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with today’s retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected with 0.7485 minor support intact. Above 0.7578 will extend larger rally to 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7485 would suggest short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7298).

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

AUD/USD’s rebound last week argues that a short term bottom was formed at 0.6828, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7187). On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7119; (P) 0.7148; (R1) 0.7203; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6992 resumes by breaking through 0.7185. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7255). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed, after defending 0.6991 key structural support. Further rally would then be seen back to 0.7555 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7089 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6991 key support again.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6840; (P) 0.6882; (R1) 0.6952; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect correction from 0.7064 short term top to extend with another decline. Break of 0.6776 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7340). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6727). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.