Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7155; (P) 0.7177; (R1) 0.7207; More…

Despite diminishing upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, intraday bias stays on the upside in AUD/USD. Current rebound from 0.6722 might extend higher. But upside should be limited below 0.7393 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6722 low. Overall, larger down trend from 0.8135 is expected to resume later after consolidation completes.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is now ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7689; (P) 0.7733; (R1) 0.7806; More…

AUD/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current up trend from 0.5506 should target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170 next. On the downside, break of 0.7641 support is needed to be the first sign of short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7154; (P) 0.7174; (R1) 0.7208; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 support should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7721; (P) 0.7746; (R1) 0.7780; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook and further rise is in favor with 0.7681 minor support intact. Firm break of 0.7819 resistance will resume larger up trend from 0.5506. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. On the downside, break of 0.7681 minor support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 0.7819 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7405; (P) 0.7441; (R1) 0.7487; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current development suggests that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Rise from 0.7105 should target 0.7530 support turned resistance first. Sustained break there will bring retest of 0.8006 high. On the downside, break of 0.7394 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6783; (P) 0.6819; (R1) 0.6848; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6873 minor resistance confirms short term bottoming at 0.6680, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6982) and above. On the downside, below 0.6801 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6680 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7333; (P) 0.7397; (R1) 0.7432; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 0.7309. As noted before, corrective recovery from there has completed at 0.7483 already. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7429 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the correction with another rise through 0.7483. But still, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7717; (P) 0.7723; (R1) 0.7734; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7500 is still in progress. But for the moment, we’d still expect upside to be limited by 0.7732/8 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7738). On the downside, break of 0.7653 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.7500. However, sustained break of 0.7732 should invalidate our bearish view and bring stronger rise through 61.8% retracement at 0.7886.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8034). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6136; (P) 0.6314; (R1) 0.6415; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6086 next. On the upside, above 0.6385 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 0.6684 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7170; (P) 0.7221; (R1) 0.7300; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 0.7295 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Another rise is mildly in favor with 0.7180 minor support intact. Above 0.7295 will target 0.7393 cluster resistance (61.8% projection of 0.6722 to 0.7235 from 0.7076 at 0.7393). We’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside to complete the rebound. On the downside, break of 0.7180 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7076 support. However, sustained break of 0.7393 will indicate near term reversal and target 100% projection at 0.7589 next).

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6420; (P) 0.6471; (R1) 0.6503; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays in the consolidation pattern from 0.6363. Outlook is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7043; (P) 0.7090; (R1) 0.7120; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7660 resumed by breaking through 0.7029 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside. As noted before, such decline is seen as the third third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.8006. Firm break of 0.6955 low will confirm this bearish case and target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

AUD/USD extended consolidation from 0.6713 last week and outlook remains unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD extended the consolidation pattern from 0.6363 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6595; (P) 0.6612; (R1) 0.6643; More...

AUD/USD’s breach of 0.6645 resistance suggests that rise from 0.6361 is resuming. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6464 to 0.6645 from 0.6578 at 0.6690. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.6759. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.6578 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6998; (P) 0.7060; (R1) 0.7095; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 support zone. Sustained break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006, and carries larger bearish implication. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750. On the upside, break of 0.7098 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6796; (P) 0.6817; (R1) 0.6833; More…

At this point, we’re still slightly favoring more decline to 0.6754 support. Break will resume the fall from 0.6929 to retest 0.6670 low. However, on the upside, above 0.6862 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7525).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7614; (P) 0.7657; (R1) 0.7687; More…

AUD/USD is still holding in range above 0.7624 support and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. More consolidation could still be seen. But after al, near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7896 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Decisive break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124. And, AUD/USD should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6705; (P) 0.6720; (R1) 0.6727; More….

AUD/USD is staying in range above 0.6662 and intraday bias remains neutral first. More consolidation could be seen but outlook remains bearish with 0.6774 resistance intact and further decline is expected. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6670 low would confirm larger down trend resumption. However, on the upside, break of 0.6774 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s rise continued last week and edged higher to 0.7227, but retreated since then. Upside momentum has been clearly diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD and a short term top should be around the corner. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.7063 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6776, for correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Nevertheless, above 0.7227 will extend the rally towards 0.7323 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6777). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

In the longer term picture, there is no change in the view that down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Such down trend could extend through 0.5506 low after completing the corrective rise from there. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.7324) will raise the chance of long term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 key resistance.