Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6595; (P) 0.6631; (R1) 0.6674; More…

Focus remains on 0.6670 key resistance in AUD/USD. Rejection from there, followed by 0.6505 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6402 support first. However, sustained break of 0.6670 will carry larger bullish implications and target 0.7031 resistance next.

In the bigger picture,the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) might still extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next. Decisive break there will turn outlook bullish for 0.8135 (2017 high) next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7209; (R1) 0.7241; More…

AUD/USD recovers ahead of near term channel support, but stays well below 0.7313 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7738; (P) 0.7754; (R1) 0.7771; More…

AUD/USD rises to as high as 0.7796 so far today. The break of 0.7784 minor resistance is taken as the first sign of near term reversal. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. On the downside, below 0.7737 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7642 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7483; (P) 0.7504; (R1) 0.7524; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7545 temporary top is still extending. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 0.7377 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 0.7454 will resume the rise from 0.7105 to 161.8% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7771.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6570; (P) 0.6623; (R1) 0.6707; More…

Focus is now directly on 0.6670 key resistance. Rejection from there, followed by 0.6505 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.6402 support first. However, sustained break of 0.6670 will carry larger bullish implications and target 0.7031 resistance next.

In the bigger picture,the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) might still extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next. Decisive break there will turn outlook bullish for 0.8135 (2017 high) next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7440; (P) 0.7464; (R1) 0.7498; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.7328 extends higher today. The break of near term falling channel is seen as the first sign of near term reversal. But it’s staying below 0.7555 resistance so far and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 0.7388 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7328. Break there will extend the decline from 0.7748 to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7555 will argue that fall from 0.7748 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8115) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6462; (P) 0.6501; (R1) 0.6523; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6433 finally confirms larger down trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline should target 61.8% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6314 and then 100% projection at 0.6086. On the upside, break of 0.6684 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6857; (P) 0.6883; (R1) 0.6911; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6831 extends higher today. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 0.7022 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6831 will extend the decline from 0.7295 to retest 0.6722 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.7022 will indicate near term bullish reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.7205 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6855; (P) 0.6884; (R1) 0.6934; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral first. The correction from 0.7064 is expected to extend with at least one more down leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7145; (P) 0.7167; (R1) 0.7203; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range of 0.7081/7277. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.7081 support will indicate that corrective rebound from 0.6992 has completed with three waves up to 0.7277, after hitting 55 day EMA. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 key support zone. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8006. On the upside, though, break of 0.7277 will turn bias to the upside to resume the rebound.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7530; (P) 0.7569; (R1) 0.7602; More…

Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 0.8124 should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. On the upside, above 0.7607 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7729 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8049). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7960; (P) 0.7995; (R1) 0.8033; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8038 is extending. As long as 0.7874 support holds, further rally should be seen to 0.8124 high. Break there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7874 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7797) and below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside and bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7830; (P) 0.7848; (R1) 0.7882; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. Further is in favor but considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top should be near. Upside would be limited by 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886) resistance zone. On the downside, break of 0.7804 minor support should turn intraday bias back to the downside for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.7778) and below.

In the bigger picture, we’re still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8032). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8006 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 0.7105. 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 was already met. While deeper fall might be seen, we’d look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound. On the upside break of 0.7288 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. Subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

AUD/USD dropped to 0.7003 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. Upside of recovery from0.7003 should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

AUD/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that 0.6991 key structural support was defended for now. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7269). On the downside, however, break of 0.7116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6991. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 0.6991 cluster support will argue that the who up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461). For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7555 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high).

However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6850; (P) 0.6860; (R1) 0.6871; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound resumes after brief consolidation. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.6910 support turned resistance, and possibly above. At this point, such rebound is seen as a corrective move, thus, upside should be limited below 0.7082 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6807 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6677 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7645; (P) 0.7664; (R1) 0.7696; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 0.7711. Break there will extend the rise from 0.7328 through 0.7748, possibly to 0.7833. Still, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, below 0.7641 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 0.7711 with another fall. But outlook will remains mildly bullish as long as 0.7534 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8082) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6503; (P) 0.6524; (R1) 0.6552; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 0.6442 first. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6642 will resume the decline from 0.6870 towards 0.6269 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7334; (P) 0.7362; (R1) 0.7400; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation form 0.7288 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook stays bearish as long as 0.7443 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the fall from 0.8006 to 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.