Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7756; (P) 0.7800; (R1) 0.7824; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral for consolidation above 0.7758 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.7909 resistance holds. Below 0.7758 will target 0.7500 key support. At this point, there is no clearly sign of larger trend reversal yet. Hence, we’d look for strong support from 0.7500 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.7909 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8135 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6680 resumed last week. While upside momentum is diminishing slightly, further rally is still expected this week to 100% projection of 0.6680 to 0.7045 from 0.6868 at 0.7233. However, break of 0.7008 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6868 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7339; (P) 0.7360; (R1) 0.7388; More…

A temporary top is in place at AUD/USD at 0.7381 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 0.7295 minor support holds, rebound from 0.7201 short term bottom could still extend high. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 0.7425 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7295 minor support will argue that the rebound is finished and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7201 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a correction should be seen first, with stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7201 at 0.7558. The down trend from 0.8135 will resume after the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7214; (P) 0.7240; (R1) 0.7270; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.5506 should target 0.7311 long term EMA. On the downside, break of 0.7109 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6804). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.6769 temporary low last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of the consolidation should be limited by 0.6841 resistance to bring fall resumption. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.6670 should have completed at 0.6929. Break of 0.6769 will extend the fall from 0.6929 to retest 0.6670 low. However, break of 0.6841 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6929 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7529).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7824; (P) 0.7841; (R1) 0.7862; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 0.7896 will target a test on 0.8124 high. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7732 will resume the decline from 0.8124 and target medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will firm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7885; (P) 0.7900; (R1) 0.7919; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Correction from 0.8065 might extend. But downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. Above 0.7962 will target a test on 0.8065 resistance first. Firm break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.