Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6795; (P) 0.6899; (R1) 0.6959; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6898 minor support suggests short term topping at 0.7064, after failing to sustain above 0.7031 resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Deeper pull back would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. On the upside, firm break of 0.7031/64 is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) now suggests that 0.5506 is a medium term bottom. Rebound from there is likely correcting whole long term down trend form 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7326). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7083; (P) 0.7117; (R1) 0.7157; More…

AUD/USD is holding in range of 0.7063/7227 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Daily and 4 hour MACDs suggest that a short term top could have been formed. On the downside, break of 0.7063 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6776, for correcting the whole rise from 0.5506. Nevertheless, above 0.7227 will extend the rally towards 0.7311 long term EMA.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6789). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8029; (P) 0.8082; (R1) 0.8161; More…

With 0.8003 minor support intact, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside. Sustained break of 0.8124 resistance will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. Meanwhile, on the downside, break of 0.8003 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And in such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7827).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside and bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7142; (P) 0.7162; (R1) 0.7184; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline today suggests that recovery from 0.7054 has completed at 0.7206 already. Intraday bias is cautiously back on the downside for 0.7054 support first. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder term pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7141; (P) 0.7173; (R1) 0.7193; More…

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7109/7275 for now. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rise could be seen with 0.7109 intact. above 0.7275 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 0.7311 long term EMA. However, considering persistent bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7109 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for correction towards 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6817). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7684; (P) 0.7750; (R1) 0.7791; More…

AUD/USD retreated after hitting 0.7815 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.7676 support holds. Above 0.7815 will target 0.7848 resistance first. Break there should confirm that correction from 0.8006 has completed with three waves down to 0.7530. Retest of 0.8006 high should be seen next. However, break of 0.7676 will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8006 with another falling leg, back to 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7289; (P) 0.7308; (R1) 0.7332; More…

AUD/USD surges to as high as 0.7380 so far today. The strong break of 0.7314 resistance finally confirmed medium term reversal. Intraday bias is on the up side for further rally to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 and above. On the downside, break of 0.7284 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.7199 support holds.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 should have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound should be seen. But still, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6634; (P) 0.6654; (R1) 0.6667; More...

AUD/USD is still extending sideway consolidation from 0.6713 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6764; (P) 0.6773; (R1) 0.6781; More…

With 0.6808 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for 0.6677 low first. Break will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 0.6808 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7063; (P) 0.7077; (R1) 0.7099; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.7040 low and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Consolidation from 0.7040 might extends with another recovery. By upside should be limited by 0.7159 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. on the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down from 0.8135. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.7314 to 0.7040 from 0.7159 at 0.6990 and then 100% projection at 0.6885.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7135 resumed last week and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Retest of 0.6680 should be seen next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7008 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7135 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7236; (P) 0.7250; (R1) 0.7264; More…

AUD/USD rebounds notably today but stays below 0.7303 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7303 will extend the corrective rebound form 0.7804. But in such case, upside should be limited below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7744; (P) 0.7763; (R1) 0.7784; More…

AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.7819 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected with 0.7641 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.7819 will resume larger up trend from 0.5506 to 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.7413 from 0.6991 at 0.8170. However, break of 0.7641 will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper correction to 0.7461 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7352; (R1) 0.7371; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline and break of 0.7295 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.7201 has completed at 0.7381 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7201 short term bottom. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 0.8135. In case of anther recovery as consolidation from 0.7201 extends, we’d expect upside to be limited by 0.7425 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a correction should be seen first, with stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7201 at 0.7558. The down trend from 0.8135 will resume after the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6279; (P) 0.6306; (R1) 0.6348; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 4 hour 55 EMA but stays below 0.6444 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. on the upside, break of 0.6444 will extend the rebound from 0.5506 to 100% projection of 0.5506 to 0.6213 from 0.5979 at 0.6686, which is close to 0.6684 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6213 resistance turned support will argue that such rebound has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.5979 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, break of 0.6670 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6419; (P) 0.6439; (R1) 0.6462; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6356 extends higher today but upside is capped below 0.6520 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 0.6356 will resume larger fall to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7301; (P) 0.7329; (R1) 0.7358; More…

AUD/USD’s fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline from 0.8006 is correcting the whole up trend from 0.5506. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120. On the upside, break of 0.7356 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7619; (P) 0.7639; (R1) 0.7676; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7590 minor support will bring retest of 0.7530 low. Break there will resume corrective fall from 0.8006. On the upside, above 0.7676 will resume the rebound from 0.7520 to 0.7848 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7043; (P) 0.7058; (R1) 0.7088; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7005 temporary low. Upside of recovery e should be limited below 0.7192 support turned resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.7005 will resume the fall from 0.7413, which is a correction to rise form 0.5506, to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6883) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise form 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.

AUD/USD drew support from 55 day EMA and rebounded last week. The development argues that rise from 0.5506 isn’t finished. But as upside is limited below 0.6569, initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.6569 will target 0.6670 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6372 support should confirm short term reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.