Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7437; (P) 0.7477; (R1) 0.7525; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as the rebound from 0.7158 extends. Further rise would be seen through 61.8% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7541. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7351 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7529; (P) 0.7560; (R1) 0.7578; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7502 minor support will suggest that the corrective recovery from 0.7411 has completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 0.7411 and below to resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

AUD/USD’s strong rally last week confirmed short term bottoming at 0.6269. Initial bias stays on the upside this week with focus on 0.6510 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.6894 to 0.6269 at 0.6508). Sustained break of 0.6510 will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 might be completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Stronger rally should then be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.6708). Meanwhile, rejection by 0.6510 will retain near term bearishness.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. While current rebound from 0.6269 might extend higher, it could be the third leg of a corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. For now, medium term bearishness will remain as long as 0.6894 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it’s merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6891; (P) 0.6906; (R1) 0.6917; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.6849 temporary low. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. On the downside, break of 0.6849 will target 0.6754 support to confirm this bearish case. However, break of 0.6930 will turn focus back to 0.7031 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7487).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6655; (P) 0.6702; (R1) 0.6762; More…

With 0.6759 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected in AUD/USD. Fall from 0.6870 short term top would target 55 D EMA (now at 0.6612). Some support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. On the upside, however, break of 0.6759 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is over, and bring retest of 0.6870 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern that could target 0.7156 on break of 0.6894 resistance. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6588; (P) 0.6630; (R1) 0.6685; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen above 0.6573 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.6951 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.6573 will resume larger down trend to 0.6461 long term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6843; (P) 0.6871; (R1) 0.6919; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.6823 minor support argues that rebound from 0.6698 has completed. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, further break of 0.6680 low will resume larger down trend. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.6915) will target 0.7135 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8124 resumed last week and reached as low as 0.7500. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. AUD/USD should target 0.7322/8 cluster support next. On the upside, break of 0.7652 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8029). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7312; (P) 0.7353; (R1) 0.7380; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound was limited at 0.7393 and retreated sharply. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For now, as long as 0.7199 support holds, corrective rise from 0.7020 medium term bottom should still extend higher. On the upside, above 0.7393 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446. However, on the downside, break of 0.7199 will suggest that such rebound has completed earlier than expected. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound would be seen to corrective the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7105 extended higher last week. Break of 0.7288 support turned resistance indicates short term bottoming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.7425 resistance next. Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.7530 support turned resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.7221 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7105 and possibly below. But we’d continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 cluster support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. Subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we’d expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6925; (P) 0.6958; (R1) 0.7014; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Corrective rebound from 0.6680 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7135. Below 0.6855 will target a retest on 0.6680 low. However, break of 0.7135 will invalidate this view and resume the rebound from 0.6680 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6911; (P) 0.6955; (R1) 0.6987; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’d still expect corrective pattern from 0.7064 to extend with another falling leg before completion. On the downside, below 0.6901 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.6776 support. Break there will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7310). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6734). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7997; (P) 0.8022; (R1) 0.8071; More…

AUD/USD surges to as high as 0.8118 as recent rally finally resumes. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. On the downside, below 0.8027 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 0.7807 support to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8087) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7649; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7698; More…

AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.7624 extends higher today. But still it’s seen as a correction. Hence, upside should be limited well below 0.7896 resistance to bring fall resumption. Firm break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6531; (P) 0.6565; (R1) 0.6582; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.6689 short term top is in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6489). On the upside, above 0.6596 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk is mildly on the downside as long as 0.6689 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.5506 extended to as high as 0.7365 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 0.7135 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rebound from 0.5506 is strong and steep. Bullish convergence condition is seen in monthly MACD. 55 month EMA is also taken out. The case of long term reversal is building up. Focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there will confirm bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.7635 will retain bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7344; (P) 0.7374; (R1) 0.7407; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise should target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 0.7340 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 0.7135 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom is seen as correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 next. On the downside, break of 0.6776 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7167; (P) 0.7213; (R1) 0.7244; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for consolidation below 0.7258 temporary top. But with 0.7159 minor support intact, another rise is expected. Current development t argues that a medium term bottom might be in place at 0.7020. Firm break of 0.7314 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, sustained break of 0.7159 will turn focus back to 0.7020 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6518; (P) 0.6529; (R1) 0.6545; More….

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6503 support will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6849; (P) 0.6920; (R1) 0.6974; More…

AUD/USD recovered ahead of 0.6854 support despite yesterday’s dip. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6854 will resume the corrective fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6736, which is close to 0.6721 key structural support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7028 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7156 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.