Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6582; (P) 0.6599; (R1) 0.6628; More…

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range of 0.6524/6639. Intraday bias remains neutral and further fall is still expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.6524 support will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.6639 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7111; (P) 0.7130; (R1) 0.7152; More…

AUD/USD’s rebound was limited below 0.7168 resistance and drops sharply today. But it’s staying above 0.7056 minor support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. On the upside above 0.7168 will resume the rebound from 0.7003 towards 0.7295 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7549; (P) 0.7571; (R1) 0.7590; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise from 0.7411. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside to bring decline resumption eventually. On the downside, below 0.7475 will bring retest of 0.7411 low first. Break will resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6568; (P) 0.6629; (R1) 0.6661; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625 will path the way back to 0.6457 key support level. On the upside, above 0.6719 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected pull back from 0.6898. Still, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to rebound from 0.6169. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall towards 0.6169 low. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6894; (P) 0.6914; (R1) 0.6949; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6864 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.6988 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6864 resume the fall from 0.7295 to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

AUD/USD recovered after dipping to 0.7586 and mixed up near term outlook. We’ll be neutral for the moment until a break of neither 0.7748 resistance or 0.7490 support.

Initial bias in AUD/USD is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.7748 will extend the rally from 0.7158. In that case, we’d expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7586 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8165) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7145; (P) 0.7160; (R1) 0.7188; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.7243 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.7076 support holds, another rally could still be seen. Break of 07243 will resume larger rise from 0.5506. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.7076 support should confirm short term topping. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6776 support.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6804). However, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6442 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.6666. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.6877 to 0.6442 at 0.6707 next. Sustained trading above there will argue rise from 0.6442 is probably resuming whole rally from 0.6269. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.6707, followed by sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6553) will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6442 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6231; (P) 0.6289; (R1) 0.6329; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside at this point as down trend is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6362 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6539 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7600; (P) 0.7624; (R1) 0.7640; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7748 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.7647 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7748 and above. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7439; (P) 0.7469; (R1) 0.7515; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.7370/7516. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 0.7516 resistance holds, deeper fall is expected. Below 0.7328 will resume the decline from 0.7748 to 0.7144/7158 support zone. On the upside, break of 0.7516 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8091) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7468; (P) 0.7495; (R1) 0.7533; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rally and break of 0.7516 resistance indicates that the decline from 0.7748 is already completed at 0.7328. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7748 and possibly above. But then, we’ll be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, below 0.7456 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7328 short term bottom.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8091) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7149; (P) 0.7180; (R1) 0.7200; More…

AUD/USD’s retreat from 0.7235 is in progress but stays above 0.7116 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7116 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 0.6722. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for retesting this low. On the upside, above 0.7235 will extend the rebound. But upside should be limited by 0.7393 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain below 0.6826 (2016 low) suggests that the long term down trend is not ready to resume yet. But prior rejection by 55 week EMA indicates underlying medium term bearishness in the pair. Outlook will also stay bearish as long as 0.7393 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7729; (P) 0.7770; (R1) 0.7839; More…

Focus is now on 0.7837 minor resistance with today’s strong rise in AUD/USD. Firm break there will suggest that the correction from 0.8006 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting this high. On the downside, below 0.7620 will target 0.7563 support. Firm break of 0.7563 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, back towards 0.7413 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7402; (P) 0.7419; (R1) 0.7444; More…

No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. Corrective rise from 0.7328 is still in progress and could extend higher. But upside should be limited below 0.7555 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7382 will target 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence we’ll be cautious on strong support from 0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.7555 will argue that fall from 0.7748 is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8115) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6866; (P) 0.6893; (R1) 0.6931; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside with focus on 0.6756/60 cluster fibonacci level. Strong support is still expected there to bring rebound. Break of 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the downside. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6838; (P) 0.6850; (R1) 0.6867; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first. While rebound from 0.6677 might extend, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 0.6894 resistance to limit upside to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.6810 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6723. Break will bring retest of 0.6670 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6490; (P) 0.6534; (R1) 0.6558; More….

Focus stays on 0.6503 support in AUD/USD. Decisive break there will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7092; (P) 0.7143; (R1) 0.7174; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Break of 0.7105 support will confirm resumption of whole decline form 0.8006. Next target should be 0.6991 key structural support. On the upside, break of 0.7208 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has probably reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s sharp decline last week suggests that rebound form 0.7158 is completed at 0.7740 already. As the pair drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered, initial bias is neutral this week first. Nonetheless, further decline is expected as long as 0.7635 minor resistance holds. Break of 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.