Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6588; (P) 0.6630; (R1) 0.6685; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen above 0.6573 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.6951 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.6573 will resume larger down trend to 0.6461 long term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7748 last week but quickly reversed. The development argues that rise from 0.7158 is possibly completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Meanwhile, the pair is also bounded inside range of 0.7144/7833. A breakout, upside or downside, is needed to clear the outlook.

Initial bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the downside this week for 0.7409 support first. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.7683 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7748 and above. At this point, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7379; (P) 0.7462; (R1) 0.7506; More…

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7158 resumed by taking out 0.7439 and reaches as low as 0.7404 so far. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, rise from 0.7158 has completed at 0.7748 already. Further fall should be seen back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. At this point, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong support from 0.7144/58 to contain downside and bring rebound. But, break of 0.7555 resistance is now needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8118) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6742; (P) 0.6765; (R1) 0.6778; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and consolidation from 0.6677 might extend. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the corrective rebound from 0.6677. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) should confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6832; (P) 0.6856; (R1) 0.6870; More…

Firm break of 0.6849 support suggests resumption of fall from 0.7031. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6754 support. Decisive break there will confirm that corrective rebound form 0.6670 has completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest 0.6670. On the upside, break of 0.6933 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the current fall. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.8124 resumed last week and reached as low as 0.7535 so far. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Current fall is expected to target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8. On the upside, above 0.7607 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7729 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8049). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7729 near term resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7670; (P) 0.7717; (R1) 0.7760; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point, as it recovery after drawing support from 0.7676. Further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7815 will resume the rebound from 0.7530. Further break of 0.7848 will bring retest of 0.8006 high. However, break of 0.7667 will extend the consolidation pattern from 0.8006, and turn bias to the downside for 0.7530 support.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7603; (P) 0.7661; (R1) 0.7767; More…

AUD/USD’s strong rebound and break of 0.7631 resistance indicates that the pull back from 0.7740 is completed. The development indicates that rise from 0.7158 is likely resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7740 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 next. That coincides with key long term retracement level at 0.7849. On the downside, outlook will stay bullish now as long as 0.7490 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8185) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7655; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7708; More…

AUD/USD recovers ahead of 0.7624 support as consolidation continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.7896 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Decisive break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124. And, AUD/USD should target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6625; (P) 0.6685; (R1) 0.6740; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside at this point. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. On the upside, however, break of 0.6742 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6892.

In the bigger picture, it’s still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6900) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6808; (P) 0.6822; (R1) 0.6835; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral with focus on 0.6810 resistance turned support. Firm break there should confirm completion of corrective rise from 0.6670. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6723 first. Break will bring retest of 0.6677 low. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6894 resistance holds and larger down trend is expected to resume sooner or later. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7439; (P) 0.7469; (R1) 0.7515; More…

AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.7370/7516. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 0.7516 resistance holds, deeper fall is expected. Below 0.7328 will resume the decline from 0.7748 to 0.7144/7158 support zone. On the upside, break of 0.7516 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8091) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7611; (P) 0.7637; (R1) 0.7653; More…

AUD/USD dips notably today but stays above 0.7586 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7586 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, break of 0.7748 will extend the rally from 0.7158. In that case, we’d expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8165) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8012; (P) 0.8035; (R1) 0.8052; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 0.8124 temporary top. Overall, as long as 0.7807 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish for further rally. Above 0.8124 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335 next. However, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7328 key support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6847; (P) 0.6866; (R1) 0.6883; More…

Upside momentum in AUD/USD is a bit unconvincing as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is expected to 0.6910 support turned resistance and possibly above. At this point, such rebound is seen as a corrective move, thus, upside should be limited below 0.7082 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.6807 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6677 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6844; (P) 0.6858; (R1) 0.6880; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point and outlook stays bearish as long as 0.6894 resistance holds. Larger down trend is expected to resume sooner or later. On the downside, break of 0.6810 should confirm completion of corrective rise from 0.6670. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6723 first. Break will bring retest of 0.6677 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7957; (P) 0.7982; (R1) 0.8023; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7874 support holds. Above 0.8022 will extend the rise from 0.7500 to 0.8124 high. there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7874 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7774).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7271; (P) 0.7306; (R1) 0.7325; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.7555 is in progress. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.7105 should have completed with three waves up to 0.7555. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105 low. We’d look for bottoming signal again at around 0.6991 key support. On the upside, break of 0.7431 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we’re seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6429; (P) 0.6478; (R1) 0.6538; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 0.6362 is extending and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited well below 0.6698 support turned resistance. Break of 0.6362 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. With 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461 firmly taken out, next target is 0.5506 low. Medium term momentum will now be closely monitored to gauge the chance of break of 0.5506.

AUD/USD’s rise from 0.7500 extended to as high as 0.8038 last week. Outlook is unchanged despite loss of upside momentum. As long as 0.7874 support holds, further rally should be seen to 0.8124 high. Break there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7874 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7774).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside and bring reversal.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).